8876 S Creek Rd

Fuquay-Varina, NC 27592

$239,995D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,888/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $13/mo
• Annual: $153/yr
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.23%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $67,199

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($153/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (21.3% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $189k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcgee'S Crossroads Middle (math 26% / reading 40%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 749 students, 47% FRL); West Johnston High (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #347 of 535 statewide, top 65%, 1,469 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 249 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $240k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.0% in Fuquay-Varina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.