8876 S Creek Rd · Fuquay-Varina, NC 27592

$239,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2001 1.56 ac lot Est $277k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

All new flooring installed October 2025! Escape to your own private oasis at 8876 South Creek Rd! This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of comfort and country living. The open-concept living area provides a bright, welcoming space for daily life and entertaining. Situated on a generous 1.56-acre lot, there is plenty of room for your family--and your animals--to grow and play. Horses and chickens are welcome (max 3 horses per local acreage rules). While the home needs some cosmetic repairs, it is a fantastic opportunity to build ''sweat equity'' and truly make it your own. The property features a tranquil porch for quiet evenings and a massive backyard ready for

Key facts

• 1.56 acre lot
• 5 parking spots
• Built 2001

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 1.56 acres; Zoning: RAG; Horse permitted (no specific horse amenities listed); Road access: paved; both private and public maintained road responsibility
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car carport; Open parking for about 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Listed condition: Fixer
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Crawl space foundation; Double-wide manufactured body type; Built as a single-story structure
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Shaded/Other roof; Back yard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Fenced yard; Private yard
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Inside laundry room on the main level; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($153/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.0% in Fuquay-Varina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcgee'S Crossroads Middle (math 26% / reading 40%, grade F, #305 of 475 statewide, top 65%, 749 students, 47% FRL); West Johnston High (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #347 of 535 statewide, top 65%, 1,469 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 249 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $240k implies a 144% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,816 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.23%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $277,182
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8333 S Creek Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-12%)	22mo	$245,000	$177	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-38,158
• Equity at exit: $35,784

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-32,513
• Equity at exit: $20,750

Cash invested: $67,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27592

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,444/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,872

Max offer price $239,995

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,999
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,995 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,995 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,995 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,995 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $239,995 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,995 Coming Soon 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,995 Coming Soon 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,995 Coming Soon 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,995 Coming Soon 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,995 Coming Soon 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,995 Coming Soon 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,995 Coming Soon 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,995 Coming Soon 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,995 Coming Soon 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    historical $239,995
16. 2025-12-02
    historical
17. 2025-11-13
    price $239,995
18. 2025-09-01
    listed $249,995 Active
19. 2025-08-02
    historical
20. 2002-01-01
    soldstatus $98,500
21. 2001-04-01
    soldstatus $23,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,444 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,968 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$524/yr (+$44/mo · 36.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,443
• − Property taxes: −$1,444
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$4,036
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$969
• After-tax cash flow: $1,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fuquay-Varina

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Johnston County · 175,441 people
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 21,114
• Household income: $104,252
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 84.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.54%
• Current HPI: 254.0078
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+921.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Coming Soon $239,995 TMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $239,995 TMLS
• 2025-09-01 Listed $249,995 TMLS
• 2025-08-02 Coming Soon — TMLS
• 2002-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records
• 2001-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,444 · +64.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.