2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
780 sqft ·
Built 1941
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 30 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,150/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$498
Tax + insurance
−$112
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$241
Net cashflow
$298/mo
Annual
$3,577/yr
Cap rate
10.06%
Cash-on-cash
13.45%
DSCR
1.60
1% rule
1.21%
Cash to close
$26,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $94k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#491 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
Jennings (suburban): math 8% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #315 of 324 in MO (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 86% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $20k; list at $95k implies a 375% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($41k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5F88QD61J1640N
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29