3768 Willow Ave

Castle Shannon, PA 15234

$1,199,999B

None bd · None ba · — sqft · Built 1990 · MultiFamily · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $27,265/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax + insurance: −$2,056
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,726
• Net cashflow: $13,191/mo
• Annual: $158,291/yr
• Cap rate: 19.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.31%
• DSCR: 3.10
• 1% rule: 2.27%
• Cash to close: $336,000

Investor read

• This is a multifamily listed at $1.20M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($158k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $1.20M).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.16M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.16M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 94/100 on livability (#4 in PA, #9 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+.
• Keystone Oaks SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #116 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Keystone Oaks Ms (math 30% / reading 58%, grade D, #202 of 512 statewide, top 40%, 382 students, 49% FRL); Keystone Oaks Hs (math 67% / reading 24%, grade D-, #183 of 437 statewide, top 43%, 570 students, 35% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $336k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 4.3% in Castle Shannon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $27,265/mo this rent would consume 418% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 338% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.