3768 Willow Ave · Castle Shannon, PA 15234

$1,199,999

None bd · None ba · — sqft · MultiFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 1990 Good condition 0.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.7/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Income producing property in the heart of Castle Shannon. Former senior living facility featuring 22 private rooms, each with its own bathroom, and strong in place occupancy with all rooms currently occupied. Recent updates include new interior and exterior paint, new flooring throughout, new windows, newer boiler system, and updated hot water tanks. Prime South Hills location just minutes from Bethel Park and close to the T line, providing convenient access to downtown Pittsburgh and surrounding communities. Excellent opportunity for investors seeking stabilized cash flow in a highly accessible area.

Key facts

• 0.36 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 47 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Assessed value roughly $611,500; Annual taxes approximately $24,269

Exterior

• Home design: Property located at 3768 Willow Ave, Castle Shannon, PA 15234
• Construction: Lot area approximately 0.3643 acres
• Exterior features: Zoned commercial (C)

Interior

• Interior features: Part of a 22-unit community

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a multifamily listed at $1.20M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13k ($158k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($27k rent vs $1.20M).
• Recommended offer: $1.16M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 4.3% in Castle Shannon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 94/100 on livability (#4 in PA, #9 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+.
• Keystone Oaks SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #116 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Keystone Oaks Ms (math 30% / reading 58%, grade D, #202 of 512 statewide, top 40%, 382 students, 49% FRL); Keystone Oaks Hs (math 67% / reading 24%, grade D-, #183 of 437 statewide, top 43%, 570 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $27,265/mo this rent would consume 418% of the median local household income ($78k/yr) (locally 338% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $36k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $336k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.16M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,163,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.31%
• DSCR: 3.10
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,858
• List price: $1,199,999
• Delta: 311.16%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
932 Lebanon Ave	0.30mi	4/3.0	—	13mo	$310,000	—	62
928-930 Baldwin St	0.31mi	4/2.0	—	17mo	$209,500	—	59
787A, 787B Cooke Dr	0.40mi	6/2.0	—	19mo	$299,900	—	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $646,129
• Equity at exit: $178,924

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $1,646,255
• Equity at exit: $103,754

Cash invested: $336,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15234

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 80.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $27,265 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,293
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,500 /mo · $18,000/yr
• Insurance: −$500
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,726
• Net cashflow: $13,191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $10,568

Max offer price $1,199,999

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14,020	-5% $13,606	+0% $13,191	+5% $12,776	+10% $12,362
Rent	-10% $11,037	-5% $12,114	+0% $13,191	+5% $14,268	+10% $15,345
Rate	-1.0pp $13,795	-0.5pp $13,496	base $13,191	+0.5pp $12,880	+1.0pp $12,564

22-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 22× units	1	1	$27,258
Total (22 units)			$27,265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $300,000
• Closing costs: $36,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
957 Bockstoce Ave Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	45d	1	0.20mi
931 Baldwin St Unit 2 Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0	—	$1,300	—	45d	1	0.29mi
3999 Canal St Unit CAN K Castle Shannon, PA	1.0	1.0	1	$825	$825.00	25d	1	0.29mi
3999 Canal St Unit CAN G Castle Shannon, PA	1.0	1.0	1	$775	$775.00	25d	1	0.29mi
799-B Cooke Dr Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0	988	$1,495	$1.51	18d	1	0.35mi
3500 Willow Ave Unit 202 Pittsburgh, PA	1.0	1.0	—	$999	—	45d	1	0.43mi
781 Cooke Dr Unit 8 Pittsburgh, PA	1.0	1.0	—	$810	—	25d	1	0.45mi
4102 Willow Ave Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,780	$1.63	9d	1	0.49mi
775 Cooke Dr Apt 5 Pittsburgh, PA	1.0	1.0	—	$825	—	5d	1	0.49mi
919 Sleepy Hollow Rd Castle Shannon, PA	2.0	1.0	—	$1,399	—	18d	1	0.50mi
911 Sleepy Hollow Rd Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0	—	$1,399	—	5d	1	0.50mi
911 Sleepy Hollow Rd Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	—	$1,379	—	25d	1	0.50mi
911 Sleepy Hollow Rd Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0	—	$1,250	—	45d	1	0.50mi
930 Sleepy Hollow Rd Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,350	$1.32	45d	1	0.53mi
3396-3398 Columbia Dr Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	800	$1,235	$1.54	45d	1	0.56mi
3396 Columbia Dr Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	800	$1,150	$1.44	45d	1	0.56mi
405 Hoodridge Dr Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	45d	1	0.65mi
1000 Vermont Ave Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0	791	$975	$1.23	45d	1	0.72mi
5302 Overlook Glen Dr Unit 2 Pittsburgh, PA	1.0	1.0	450	$900	$2.00	25d	1	0.81mi
3260 Waverly St Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0	—	$1,245	—	45d	1	0.81mi
3157 Library Rd Unit 3153 Castle Shannon, PA	1.0	1.0	—	$1,000	—	5d	1	0.91mi
1310 Martha St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	1061	$1,050	$0.99	14d	1	1.00mi
5132 Daube Dr Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	2.5	—	$1,750	—	45d	1	1.04mi
103 Paddock Ln Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	2.0	2100	$2,299	$1.09	3d	1	1.05mi
3131 May St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,375	$1.53	18d	1	1.09mi
302 Kingsberry Cir Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	2.5	1750	$3,100	$1.77	21d	1	1.21mi
302 Kingsberry Cir Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	2.5	1750	$3,000	$1.71	3d	1	1.21mi
100 White Hampton Ln Pittsburgh, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$1,720	$1.98	3d	19	1.41mi
631 Shady Dr E Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.5	1426	$2,295	$1.61	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,199,999 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,199,999 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $1,199,999 Active 30 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,199,999 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,199,999 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,199,999 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,199,999 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $1,199,999 Active 608-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $327,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$67,219
• − Property taxes: −$18,000
• − Insurance: −$6,666
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$26,174
• − Management: −$26,174
• − Depreciation: −$34,909
• Taxable income: $148,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$35,529
• After-tax cash flow: $122,762/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This multi-family property is in good condition with recent updates, including new paint and flooring. It is located in a prime South Hills location, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both HVAC system — A newer HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both HVAC system — A newer HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keystone Oaks SD
• NCES district ID: 4212750
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,066
• Composite: 47.24/100
• National rank: #2314
• State rank: #116 of 539 in PA

Livability — Castle Shannon

• Score: 94/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #9

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Castle Shannon, PA
• County: Allegheny County · 1,022,028 people
• City population: 14,330
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 14,014
• Household income: $78,366
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Allegheny County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,250,282 people
• By 2030: 1,256,482 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 1,256,318 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 1,244,169 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 1,197,693 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 1,093,187 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · India, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegheny

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.3) · D 59.7% · R 39.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.8pp toward D · 2008: 15.5pp · 2024: 20.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.3 2020: D+20.4 2016: D+16.4 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.99%
• Current HPI: 261.6436
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $1,199,999 West Penn MLS