16051 Forrest Dr

Houston, MO 65483

$1F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,058 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,232/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,058
• Tax + insurance: −$654
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-1,739/mo
• Annual: $-20,872/yr
• Cap rate: 0.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.99%
• DSCR: 0.16
• 1% rule: 0.31%
• Cash to close: $109,902

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#824 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Houston R-I (rural): math 24% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #266 of 324 in MO (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Houston Elem. (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #656 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 432 students, 55% FRL); Houston High (math 12% / reading 52%, grade F, #356 of 521 statewide, top 71%, 374 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 588760.9% of price.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Texas County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Texas County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.0% vs local median 4.0% in Houston — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.