16051 Forrest Dr · Houston, MO 65483

$1

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,058 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2022 70 ac lot ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.3/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AUCTION LISTING - List price is not indicative of Seller’s final reserve amount. This property is part of an online bidding event. This sale will be executed with a no-contingency contract provided by the brokerage representing the Seller. See MLS Supplement Document for complete details. Discover a rare opportunity to bid on a remarkable 71-acre property offered in three attractive tracts, featuring a charming 3-bedroom, 3-bath cottage and an exceptional blend of natural beauty, privacy, and recreational appeal. This one-and-a-half-story home offers warm, inviting character throughout, highlighted by natural wood finishes and an updated kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances. The land is the true showpiece—rolling terrain, timber, and abundant wildlife create an ideal setting for hunters, outdoor enthusiasts, or anyone seeking a private retreat. A scenic pond provides a peaceful focal point, while a wet-weather creek winds along the back of the property, framed by dramatic talus deposits and striking rock outcroppings that you simply must see to fully appreciate. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, a weekend escape, or a unique investment opportunity, this property delivers exceptional versatility. Its proximity to the Big Piney River opens the door to floating, fishing, and endless outdoor recreation. With three tracts available, bidders can pursue the home, the land, or the entire offering—an uncommon chance to secure a beautiful piece of the Ozarks at auction.

Key facts

• 3 bedroom cottage
• Rolling terrain
• Abundant wildlife

Tags

• 71 ACRE PROPERTY
• 3 BEDROOM COTTAGE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ROLLING TERRAIN
• ABUNDANT WILDLIFE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing offered by auction; Utility easement on property

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel off-street parking; Outside parking
• Security: Fire escape
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected (single phase, 220 volts); Leased propane
• Home design: Farm property (single-family residence); One-and-a-half story layout; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built area above grade verified by appraiser
• Exterior features: Deck with wrap-around porch; Panel doors; Shed(s), storage, and workshop on the property; Waterfront with creek, pond, and stream; Gently rolling, wooded lot with many trees and rock outcroppings; Private setting with rolling slopes

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Propane cooktop; Dishwasher; Exhaust fan; Microwave; Built-in electric oven; Double oven; Electric oven; Built-in electric range; Gas range; Refrigerator; Wall oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms total (2 on the main level, 1 on the upper level)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms (2 full on the main level, 1 full on the upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Space heater; Multiple cooling units (wall/window units)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Open floor plan; Storage; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Double-pane windows; Fire escape
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Main-level laundry

🔨 Auction listing. The $1 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $392,507 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $1).
• Cap rate 1.0% vs local median 4.0% in Houston — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#824 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Houston R-I (rural): math 24% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #266 of 324 in MO (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Houston Elem. (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #656 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 432 students, 55% FRL); Houston High (math 12% / reading 52%, grade F, #356 of 521 statewide, top 71%, 374 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Texas County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Texas County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 588760.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.31% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.99%
• DSCR: 0.16
• GRM: 26.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,507
• List price: $1
• Delta: -100.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7926 Westwood Dr	0.62mi	3/3.0	2,066 (+0%)	6mo	$385,000	$186	65
7971 Westwood Dr. Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5	2,259 (+10%)	3mo	$469,000	$208	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -55.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-174,361
• Equity at exit: $58,524

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.68×
• Total profit: $-294,398
• Equity at exit: $33,937

Cash invested: $109,902 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65483

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 90

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,232 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,058
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$491 /mo · $5,888/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-1,739

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,434

Max offer price $140,828

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,468	-5% $-1,604	+0% $-1,739	+5% $-1,875	+10% $-2,011
Rent	-10% $-1,837	-5% $-1,788	+0% $-1,739	+5% $-1,691	+10% $-1,642
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,542	-0.5pp $-1,639	base $-1,739	+0.5pp $-1,841	+1.0pp $-1,944

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,127
• Closing costs: $11,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $1 Active 1543-char remark
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $1 Active 1543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1543 chars)

    AUCTION LISTING - List price is not indicative of Seller’s final reserve amount. This property is part of an online bidding event. This sale will be executed with a no-contingency contract provided by the brokerage representing the Seller. See MLS Supplement Document for complete details. Discover a rare opportunity to bid on a remarkable 71-acre property offered in three attractive tracts, featuring a charming 3-bedroom, 3-bath cottage and an exceptional blend of natural beauty, privacy, and recreational appeal. This one-and-a-half-story home offers warm, inviting character throughout, highlighted by natural wood finishes and an updated kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances. The land is the true showpiece—rolling terrain, timber, and abundant wildlife create an ideal setting for hunters, outdoor enthusiasts, or anyone seeking a private retreat. A scenic pond provides a peaceful focal point, while a wet-weather creek winds along the back of the property, framed by dramatic talus deposits and striking rock outcroppings that you simply must see to fully appreciate. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, a weekend escape, or a unique investment opportunity, this property delivers exceptional versatility. Its proximity to the Big Piney River opens the door to floating, fishing, and endless outdoor recreation. With three tracts available, bidders can pursue the home, the land, or the entire offering—an uncommon chance to secure a beautiful piece of the Ozarks at auction.

18. 2026-03-24
    historical
19. 2026-03-24
    historical
20. 2026-03-11
    price $285,000
21. 2026-03-11
    price $285,000
22. 2026-02-06
    price $300,000
23. 2026-02-05
    price $300,000
24. 2025-10-24
    price $315,000
25. 2025-10-23
    price $315,000
26. 2025-10-07
    listed $398,000 Active
27. 2025-10-07
    listed $589,000 Active
28. 2025-10-06
    listed $398,000 New Listing
29. 2025-10-06
    listed $589,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,783
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,987
• − Property taxes: −$5,888
• − Insurance: −$1,963
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,183
• − Management: −$1,183
• − Depreciation: −$11,418
• Taxable loss: −$28,837
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,921
• After-tax cash flow: $-13,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston R-I
• NCES district ID: 2914840
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $34,169
• Composite: 25.88/100
• National rank: #7344
• State rank: #266 of 324 in MO

Livability — Houston

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #824
• US rank: #24484

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,607

Population outlook (Texas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,648 people
• By 2030: 23,981 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 22,840 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 21,832 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 19,481 · -21.0%
• By 2100: 16,634 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Danish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Texas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.7) · D 13.8% · R 85.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: -35.1pp · 2024: -71.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.7 2020: R+68.6 2016: R+65.4 2012: R+44.1 2008: R+35.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.78%
• Current HPI: 224.0504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-28.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $1 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Listed $1 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $285,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $285,000 SOMO
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $300,000 CARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $300,000 SOMO
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $315,000 CARMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $315,000 SOMO
• 2025-10-07 Listed $398,000 SOMO
• 2025-10-07 Listed $589,000 SOMO
• 2025-10-06 Listed $589,000 CARMLS
• 2025-10-06 Listed $398,000 CARMLS