4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,028 sqft ·
Built 1977
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,598/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,407
Tax + insurance
−$670
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$756
Net cashflow
$-234/mo
Annual
$-2,807/yr
Cap rate
5.68%
Cash-on-cash
-2.18%
DSCR
0.90
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$128,520
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $459k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $418k (9.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $360k (21.6% below list).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($445k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $360k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
Saratoga Springs City SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #138 of 590 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Division Street Elementary School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #447 of 2,108 statewide, top 24%, 414 students, 25% FRL); Saratoga Springs High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,947 students, 26% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 82% at this address vs 70% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Saratoga Springs City SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 474 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-5FJG0WBC9K66F3
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29