12050 Greenbrier Ln

Smithfield, VA 23430

$379,500D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,156 sqft · Built 1952 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,515/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,990
• Tax + insurance: −$313
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-316/mo
• Annual: $-3,795/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $106,260

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (33.7% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $252k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in VA, #2,722 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hardy Elementary (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #381 of 1,108 statewide, top 36%, 526 students, 49% FRL); Westside Elementary (math 56% / reading 69%, grade B+, #139 of 342 statewide, top 41%, 729 students, 34% FRL); Smithfield High (math 66% / reading 80%, grade B+, #129 of 319 statewide, top 41%, 1,347 students, 33% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $380k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.6% in Smithfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.