12050 Greenbrier Ln · Smithfield, VA 23430

$379,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,156 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1952 $176/sqft · 16% below area Est $455k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This fully renovated rancher offers privacy, comfort, and peace of mind with major updates including a new roof 2026, brand new HVAC and electrical panel and brand new windows. Inside, brand new LVP floors, welcoming atmosphere, complemented by a timeless neutral color palette. The primary suite with a spacious closet, and a beautifully fully renovated bathroom. Three additional bedrooms and a full hall bath. Conveniently located near military bases and just minutes from downtown Smithfield’s shops and dining, this home offers the perfect blend of lifestyle and location.

Key facts

• New lvp floors
• New hvac
• New electrical panel

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVAC
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW LVP FLOORS
• FULLY RENOVATED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Street parking
• Utilities: City/County sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Detached ranch-style home; Single-story
• Construction: Crawl-space foundation
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom; Additional bedroom; Bedroom and full bathroom located on the first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring; Bedroom with full bathroom on the first floor; 8 total rooms (living room, great room, dining room, family room, kitchen, utility room, master bedroom, additional bedroom, full bathroom)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $324k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.6% in Smithfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in VA, #2,722 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hardy Elementary (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #381 of 1,108 statewide, top 36%, 526 students, 49% FRL); Westside Elementary (math 56% / reading 69%, grade B+, #139 of 342 statewide, top 41%, 729 students, 34% FRL); Smithfield High (math 66% / reading 80%, grade B+, #129 of 319 statewide, top 41%, 1,347 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $205k; list at $380k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,540 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.57%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $455,000
• List price: $379,500
• Delta: -16.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12050 Greenbrier Ln	0.00mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,156 (0%)	6mo	$205,100	$95	90
409 Southampton Ct	0.64mi	4/2.5	2,280 (+6%)	8mo	$405,000	$178	52
1406 Wharf Hill Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,897 (-12%)	2mo	$559,900	$295	48
141 Lane Cres	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,057 (-5%)	11mo	$400,000	$194	47
100 Minton Way	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,030 (-6%)	2mo	$445,000	$219	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-81,798
• Equity at exit: $56,585

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-97,810
• Equity at exit: $32,812

Cash invested: $106,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23430

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,990
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,862/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,916

Max offer price $323,626

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-101	-5% $-209	+0% $-316	+5% $-424	+10% $-531
Rent	-10% $-515	-5% $-416	+0% $-316	+5% $-217	+10% $-118
Rate	-1.0pp $-125	-0.5pp $-220	base $-316	+0.5pp $-415	+1.0pp $-515

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,875
• Closing costs: $11,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 Lakeview Cove Smithfield, VA	3.0	3.0	1891	$2,600	$1.37	16d	1	0.73mi
1604 Colonial Ave Smithfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,499	$1.61	45d	1	0.87mi
32 Riverside Dr Smithfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1832	$2,400	$1.31	16d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,500 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,500 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,500 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,500 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,500 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $379,500 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $379,500 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $379,500 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-05-13
   price $380,000 583-char remark
10. 2026-05-07
    listed $374,000 Active 583-char remark
11. 2026-05-07
    historical
12. 2026-04-29
    price $374,000
13. 2026-04-16
    price $384,000
14. 2026-04-01
    listed $389,000 Active
15. 2025-12-18
    soldstatus $205,100 Sold
16. 2025-11-04
    status Under Contract
17. 2025-10-27
    status Active
18. 2025-10-17
    status Under Contract
19. 2025-10-07
    listed $175,000 Active
20. 2025-05-02
    soldstatus $226,935
21. 2025-04-22
    historical
22. 2024-10-30
    listed $253,000 Active
23. 2023-08-18
    status Under Contract
24. 2023-08-18
    status Active Under Contract
25. 2023-08-18
    historical
26. 2023-08-17
    historical
27. 2023-07-06
    historical Active Under Contract
28. 2023-06-12
    price $175,000
29. 2023-05-19
    price $231,005
30. 2023-05-17
    listed $192,000 Active
31. 2017-09-26
    soldstatus $170,000
32. 2016-03-25
    soldstatus $117,800
33. 2016-01-20
    status Under Contract
34. 2016-01-19
    historical
35. 2015-10-19
    price $117,000
36. 2015-09-25
    listed $125,000 Active
37. 2015-05-11
    price $125,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,112 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,250/yr (+$104/mo · 67.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,258
• − Property taxes: −$1,862
• − Insurance: −$1,898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,415
• − Management: −$2,415
• − Depreciation: −$11,040
• Taxable loss: −$10,702
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,569
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Isle Of Wight County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102010
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,756
• Composite: 58.67/100
• National rank: #982
• State rank: #28 of 131 in VA

Livability — Smithfield

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #2722

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Smithfield, VA
• Population (ZIP): 19,057

Population outlook (Isle of Wight County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,005 people
• By 2030: 40,089 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 41,703 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 42,745 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 47,222 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 47,810 · +22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Isle of Wight

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.6% · R 59.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.15%
• Current HPI: 280.3343
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+201.4% since first listed

32 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $379,500 REINMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $379,500 REINMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $380,000 REINMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $374,000 REINMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $374,000 REINMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $384,000 REINMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $389,000 REINMLS
• 2025-12-18 Sold (MLS) $205,100 REINMLS
• 2025-11-04 Pending — REINMLS
• 2025-10-27 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2025-10-17 Pending — REINMLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $175,000 REINMLS
• 2025-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $226,935 Public Records
• 2025-04-22 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2024-10-30 Listed $253,000 REINMLS
• 2023-08-18 Pending — REINMLS
• 2023-08-18 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2023-08-18 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2023-08-17 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2023-07-06 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2023-06-12 Price Changed $175,000 REINMLS
• 2023-05-19 Price Changed $231,005 REINMLS
• 2023-05-17 Listed $192,000 REINMLS
• 2017-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2016-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $117,800 Public Records
• 2016-01-20 Pending — REINMLS
• 2016-01-19 Listing Removed — REINMLS
• 2015-10-19 Price Changed $117,000 REINMLS
• 2015-09-25 Listed $125,000 REINMLS
• 2015-05-11 Price Changed $125,900 REINMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,862 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.