3420 Airline Rd

Hodgenville, KY 42776

$189,900B

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · Built 1950 · Other · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,336/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $690/mo
• Annual: $8,282/yr
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.58%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $690 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-175 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#259 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Larue County (rural): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #82 of 165 in KY (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Larue County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Larue County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $190k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.1% in Hodgenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.