3420 Airline Rd · Hodgenville, KY 42776

$189,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · Other public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1950 0.38 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Country life at an affordable price! Adorable old farm house w/ large addition. Updated kitchen and baths and fresh paint! Make an appointment to see this one today!

Key facts

• Country farmhouse
• Basement for storage
• Open kitchen

Tags

• COUNTRY FARMHOUSE
• OPEN KITCHEN
• BASEMENT FOR STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No dedicated parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Farm property; 2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built as a residential farm
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Deck; Porch; Fenced yard; Farm lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Ceiling fans; Decorative fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room; Partial basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $690 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 4.1% in Hodgenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#259 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Larue County (rural): math 26% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #82 of 165 in KY (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Larue County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-175 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Larue County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $190k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $184,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.58%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $37,518
• Equity at exit: $54,265

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $113,011
• Equity at exit: $64,535

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42776

• Home prices YoY: -0.0%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,336 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $968/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $690

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,463

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $798	-5% $744	+0% $690	+5% $636	+10% $583
Rent	-10% $506	-5% $598	+0% $690	+5% $782	+10% $875
Rate	-1.0pp $786	-0.5pp $738	base $690	+0.5pp $641	+1.0pp $591

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $189,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    price $199,900 440-char remark
17. 2026-04-24
    listed $209,900 Active 440-char remark
18. 2021-01-05
    soldstatus $95,000 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Country life at an affordable price! Adorable old farm house w/ large addition. Updated kitchen and baths and fresh paint! Make an appointment to see this one today!

19. 2021-01-05
    soldstatus $95,000

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Country life at an affordable price! Adorable old farm house w/ large addition. Updated kitchen and baths and fresh paint! Make an appointment to see this one today!

20. 2020-11-27
    listed $98,500 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Country life at an affordable price! Adorable old farm house w/ large addition. Updated kitchen and baths and fresh paint! Make an appointment to see this one today!

21. 2017-03-17
    historical
22. 2017-01-19
    listed $107,500
23. 2016-12-31
    historical
24. 2016-07-14
    listed $107,500
25. 1996-04-01
    soldstatus $23,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $968 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,633 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$665/yr (+$55/mo · 68.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$968
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,243
• − Management: −$2,243
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $5,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,313
• After-tax cash flow: $6,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Larue County
• NCES district ID: 2103180
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $39,784
• Composite: 27.66/100
• National rank: #6918
• State rank: #82 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hodgenville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #259
• US rank: #12858

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,071

Population outlook (Larue County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,441 people
• By 2030: 14,453 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 14,258 · -1.3%
• By 2050: 13,687 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 12,271 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 10,639 · -26.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Larue

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.1% · R 79.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -36.3pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+36.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.09%
• Current HPI: 334.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+694.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Price Changed $189,900 HKARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $199,900 HKARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $209,900 HKARMLS
• 2021-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-05 Sold (MLS) $95,000 HKARMLS
• 2020-11-27 Listed $98,500 HKARMLS
• 2017-03-17 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2017-01-19 Listed $107,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2016-12-31 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2016-07-14 Listed $107,500 Metro Search MLS
• 1996-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $968 · +143.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.