114 Victoria Pl

Syracuse, NY 13210

$315,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,897 sqft · Built 1917 · SingleFamily · Active · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,990/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$330
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-410/mo
• Annual: $-4,923/yr
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.83%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-410 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (36.8% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (36.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.2%/yr); 58 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $315k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 8.2% in Syracuse — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $1,990/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 2307% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.