509 Mary St

Mifflinville, PA 18635

$129,000B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,755/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$271
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $440/mo
• Annual: $5,275/yr
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.45%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.36%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $440 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#769 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Central Columbia SD (suburban): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #51 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major: siding — Peeling and chipping paint.
• Major: flooring — Worn and damaged carpet.
• Major: interior walls/paint — Damaged and discolored walls.
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt.
• Major: HVAC — Old and in need of maintenance or replacement.