509 Mary St · Mifflinville, PA 18635

$129,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,314 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Built 1984 Poor condition 0.88 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Stop paying lot rent and enjoy the freedom of making this your own! This two bedroom 14'x66' mobile home has 2 additions. It needs your sweat equity to bring it back to its full potential. There are two decks, a 2-car detached garage and a 0.88 acre parcel of land. All in Central School District.

Key facts

• Two decks
• 0.88 acre parcel
• Two additions

Tags

• TWO ADDITIONS
• TWO DECKS
• DETACHED GARAGE
• 0.88 ACRE PARCEL
• CENTRAL SCHOOL DISTRICT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax information available

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Mobile home (residential property)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; No foundation info provided
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Lot of about 0.88 acres; Residential zoning

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $440 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#769 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Central Columbia SD (suburban): math 58% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #51 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,065 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.45%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.2% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $44,955
• Equity at exit: $59,445

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $119,232
• Equity at exit: $92,749

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18635

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,755 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,199

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $129,000
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,063
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$1,312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,685
• − Management: −$1,685
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $3,468
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$832
• After-tax cash flow: $4,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This mobile home requires extensive repairs and updates to bring it up to a livable condition. Significant work is needed on the roof, siding, flooring, interior walls, landscaping, HVAC, foundation, and windows.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major siding — Peeling and chipping paint.
• Major flooring — Worn and damaged carpet.
• Major interior walls/paint — Damaged and discolored walls.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt.
• Major HVAC — Old and in need of maintenance or replacement.
• Major foundation — Cracks and settling.
• Major windows — Old and in need of replacement or repair.

Value-add opportunities

• Both New roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality.
• Both New siding — New siding would improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both New flooring — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Painting — Painting would improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both HVAC replacement — A new HVAC system would improve the home's comfort and increase its value.
• Both Foundation repair — Repairing the foundation would improve the home's structural integrity and increase its value.
• Both Window replacement — New windows would improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
siding · Peeling and chipping paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and damaged carpet.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Damaged and discolored walls.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC · Old and in need of maintenance or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation · Cracks and settling.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Old and in need of replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality. ↑
• Both New siding — New siding would improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both New flooring — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Painting — Painting would improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC replacement — A new HVAC system would improve the home's comfort and increase its value. ↑
• Both Foundation repair — Repairing the foundation would improve the home's structural integrity and increase its value. ↑
• Both Window replacement — New windows would improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Columbia SD
• NCES district ID: 4205370
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,278
• Composite: 55.99/100
• National rank: #1195
• State rank: #51 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mifflinville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #769
• US rank: #7709

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mifflinville, PA
• City population: 1,109
• Population (ZIP): 3,640

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,170 people
• By 2030: 64,054 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 61,131 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 57,526 · -11.7%
• By 2075: 50,259 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 44,756 · -31.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.0) · D 34.0% · R 65.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -4.5pp · 2024: -31.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.0 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+32.8 2012: R+12.4 2008: R+4.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.20%
• Current HPI: 245.2539
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+7.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $129,000 CSVBR
• 2026-05-20 Listed $120,000 CSVBR