16 E Tolna Rd

Shrewsbury, PA 17361

$180,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,718/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$388
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $26/mo
• Annual: $309/yr
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.61%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($309/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (4.5% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $172k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#136 in PA, #1,098 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Southern York County SD (rural): math 39% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #168 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Shrewsbury El Sch (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #718 of 1,518 statewide, top 48%, 499 students, 23% FRL); Southern Ms (math 20% / reading 54%, grade F, #298 of 512 statewide, top 60%, 441 students, 26% FRL); Susquehannock Hs (math 69% / reading 24%, grade D-, #173 of 437 statewide, top 40%, 928 students, 23% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 0.7% in Shrewsbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.