16 E Tolna Rd · Shrewsbury, PA 17361

$180,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1946 6,970 sqft lot Est $290k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover a prime investment opportunity with this charming Cape Cod-style home, built in 1946 and offering 1,646 sq. ft. of potential. This detached residence features three bedrooms and a full bathroom, making it ideal for rental or resale. The full basement provides additional storage or potential for future expansion, enhancing the property's value. Set on a 0.16-acre lot, this home includes a detached garage, adding convenience and appeal for future tenants or buyers. Located in a desirable area with strong rental demand, this property presents an excellent chance for cash flow and long-term appreciation. With no HOA fees and a straightforward layout, it's perfect for investors looking

Key facts

• Strong rental demand
• Cape cod style home
• Full basement

Tags

• CAPE COD STYLE HOME
• FULL BASEMENT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• DESIRABLE AREA
• STRONG RENTAL DEMAND
• NO HOA FEES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached front-entry garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling fuel; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Home design: Detached property; Finished above-grade living area (per assessor)
• Construction: Vinyl and aluminum siding; Permanent foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; One bedroom on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Natural gas heat; Ceiling fan cooling (electric)
• Interior features: Full basement; Dining room; Family room
• Laundry & utility: Hot water provided by natural gas

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($309/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 0.7% in Shrewsbury — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#136 in PA, #1,098 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Southern York County SD (rural): math 39% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #168 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Shrewsbury El Sch (math 37% / reading 60%, grade D, #718 of 1,518 statewide, top 48%, 499 students, 23% FRL); Southern Ms (math 20% / reading 54%, grade F, #298 of 512 statewide, top 60%, 441 students, 26% FRL); Susquehannock Hs (math 69% / reading 24%, grade D-, #173 of 437 statewide, top 40%, 928 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,821 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.61%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,472
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Lisburn Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,296 (+10%)	4mo	$301,000	$232	69
343 S Main St	0.23mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,117 (-5%)	10mo	$276,100	$247	66
216 S Sunset Dr	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-5%)	12mo	$272,500	$243	61
17181 Mount Airy Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+10%)	8mo	$335,000	$258	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-27,450
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-21,469
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17361

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,718 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$313 /mo · $3,753/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,686

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $128	-5% $77	+0% $26	+5% $-25	+10% $-76
Rent	-10% $-110	-5% $-42	+0% $26	+5% $94	+10% $161
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $71	base $26	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $180,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-13
   listed $180,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,753 · $313/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,753 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$3,753
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$2,652
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern York County SD
• NCES district ID: 4222380
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $70,881
• Composite: 43.46/100
• National rank: #3005
• State rank: #168 of 539 in PA

Livability — Shrewsbury

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #136
• US rank: #1098

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shrewsbury, PA
• City population: 7,938
• Population (ZIP): 6,262

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.37%
• Current HPI: 228.7305
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $180,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,753 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.