25955 California 243 #40

Idyllwild-Pine Cove, CA 92549

$32,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Pending · 76 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,488/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$168
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$817
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $71/mo
• Annual: $848/yr
• Cap rate: 11.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.36%
• DSCR: 1.82
• 1% rule: 4.65%
• Cash to close: $8,960

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $32k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $71 ($848/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $30k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $960 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Idyllwild (269 students, 73% FRL); Hemet High (math 21% / reading 46%, grade F, #656 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 2,438 students, 82% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 55% of rent.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 2.9% in Idyllwild-Pine Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — yellow cabinets need updating
• Moderate: stove — outdated stove needs replacement
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — basic fixtures need updating