1363 Welch Rd

Kimberling City, MO 65737

$214,900D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · Built 1985 · MultiFamily · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,550/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$149
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-52/mo
• Annual: $-623/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $60,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-623/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (27.9% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Reeds Spring Elem. (math 33% / reading 33%, grade F, #744 of 1,115 statewide, top 67%, 358 students, 62% FRL); Reeds Spring Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #202 of 391 statewide, top 54%, 286 students, 56% FRL); Reeds Spring High (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 602 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 346 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.7% in Kimberling City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.