1363 Welch Rd · Kimberling City, MO 65737

$214,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · MultiFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 1985 0.64 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this one! Completely renovated, with a new roof & HVACs, windows and decks in 2019, as well as a new septic system. Situated on . 64 acres, mere steps from Table Rock Lake. If you've ever wanted to own lake property that pays for itself, you've arrived!

Key facts

• New hvacs
• New septic system
• New decks

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW HVACS
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW DECKS
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• STEPS FROM TABLE ROCK LAKE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-623/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 1.7% in Kimberling City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#162 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, employment D.
• Reeds Spring R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #182 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 346 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 191 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stone County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($208k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $155,000 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-30,718
• Equity at exit: $40,036

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-24,789
• Equity at exit: $32,606

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65737

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,550 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $719/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,616

Max offer price $205,736

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $70	-5% $9	+0% $-52	+5% $-113	+10% $-174
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-113	+0% $-52	+5% $9	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $3	base $-52	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-164

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
260 Terrace Crest Ln Reeds Spring, MO	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	45d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 277-char remark

   Show marketing remark (277 chars)

   Don't miss out on this one! Completely renovated, with a new roof & HVACs, windows and decks in 2019, as well as a new septic system. Situated on . 64 acres, mere steps from Table Rock Lake. If you've ever wanted to own lake property that pays for itself, you've arrived!

2. 2026-04-17
   listed $214,900 Active 277-char remark

   Show marketing remark (277 chars)

   Don't miss out on this one! Completely renovated, with a new roof & HVACs, windows and decks in 2019, as well as a new septic system. Situated on . 64 acres, mere steps from Table Rock Lake. If you've ever wanted to own lake property that pays for itself, you've arrived!

3. 2025-11-03
   listed $244,900 Active
4. 2025-08-01
   listed $259,900 Active
5. 2019-04-29
   soldstatus
6. 2019-04-26
   soldstatus
7. 2018-10-19
   listed $154,000
8. 2018-10-19
   listed $154,000
9. 2018-07-12
   soldstatus
10. 2018-06-11
    listed $40,000
11. 2017-02-08
    listed $44,000
12. 2016-01-11
    listed $49,900
13. 2014-12-03
    listed $44,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $719 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,085 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,366/yr (+$114/mo · 190.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$719
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,488
• − Management: −$1,488
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$4,458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,070
• After-tax cash flow: $447/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reeds Spring R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2926160
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $42,158
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5819
• State rank: #182 of 324 in MO

Livability — Kimberling City

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #162
• US rank: #8879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,279

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,147 people
• By 2030: 26,405 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 22,762 · -19.1%
• By 2050: 19,706 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 14,742 · -47.6%
• By 2100: 10,832 · -61.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.4) · D 18.9% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -61.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+49.2 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.17%
• Current HPI: 239.032
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+388.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-04-17 Listed $214,900 SOMO
• 2025-11-03 Listed $244,900 SOMO
• 2025-08-01 Listed $259,900 SOMO
• 2019-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-04-26 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2018-10-19 Listed $154,000 SOMO
• 2018-10-19 Listed $154,000 SOMO
• 2018-07-12 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2018-06-11 Listed $40,000 SOMO
• 2017-02-08 Listed $44,000 SOMO
• 2016-01-11 Listed $49,900 SOMO
• 2014-12-03 Listed $44,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $719 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.