17 W Green St

Dunkirk, NY 14048

$129,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $980/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-137/mo
• Annual: $-1,644/yr
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.55%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (24.0% below list).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dunkirk Intermediate School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,945 of 2,108 statewide, top 94%, 588 students, 73% FRL); Dunkirk Senior High School (math 87%, 882 students, 67% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dunkirk City School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $129k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.