17 W Green St · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1910 9,737 sqft lot $89/sqft · 36% below area Est $202k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice solid home in a sought after area. Home has a deep back yard. Plenty of space inside. Cozy living area with fireplace. Nice size dining room for entertaining. Two full baths. Nice front porch for those hot summer nights. Close to shopping and the ICE CREAM parlor!

Key facts

• Size dining room
• Deep back yard
• Front porch

Tags

• DEEP BACK YARD
• LIVING AREA WITH FIREPLACE
• SIZE DINING ROOM
• FRONT PORCH
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dunkirk Intermediate School (math 10% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,945 of 2,108 statewide, top 94%, 588 students, 73% FRL); Dunkirk Senior High School (math 87%, 882 students, 67% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dunkirk City School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $129k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,000 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.55%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,895
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -36.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Wilson Ave	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,500 (+3%)	8mo	$188,000	$125	79
60 Fairview Ave	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,448 (-0%)	7mo	$90,000	$62	78
32 Albany Ave	0.18mi	3/1.5	1,532 (+6%)	3mo	$145,000	$95	77
86 E Green St	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,438 (-1%)	4mo	$186,000	$129	77
38 Wilson Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	14mo	$226,400	$145	70
30 W Green St	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,288 (-11%)	12mo	$180,000	$140	65
17 New York Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,356 (-6%)	11mo	$26,900	$20	64
33 Willowbrook Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,522 (+5%)	20mo	$156,100	$103	61
63 E Green St	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,253 (-14%)	14mo	$187,090	$149	50
717 Roosevelt Ave	0.72mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,499 (+3%)	10mo	$171,000	$114	45
843 Jefferson Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,325 (-9%)	20mo	$170,000	$128	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $20,526
• Equity at exit: $72,561

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $69,913
• Equity at exit: $124,784

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,171/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,153

Max offer price $104,803

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-64	-5% $-100	+0% $-137	+5% $-173	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-176	+0% $-137	+5% $-98	+10% $-60
Rate	-1.0pp $-72	-0.5pp $-104	base $-137	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Greco Ln Dunkirk, NY	2.0	1.0	1079	$980	$0.91	45d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    listed $129,000 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Nice solid home in a sought after area. Home has a deep back yard. Plenty of space inside. Cozy living area with fireplace. Nice size dining room for entertaining. Two full baths. Nice front porch for those hot summer nights. Close to shopping and the ICE CREAM parlor!

18. 2016-10-12
    listed $128,000
19. 2015-03-30
    listed $138,000
20. 2008-03-24
    soldstatus $54,000
21. 2008-03-18
    soldstatus $54,000
22. 2007-09-12
    listed $66,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,171 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,176 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$4/yr ($0/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$2,171
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$941
• − Management: −$941
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$3,917
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$940
• After-tax cash flow: $-704/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+94.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $129,000 UNYREIS
• 2016-10-12 Listed $128,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-03-30 Listed $138,000 UNYREIS
• 2008-03-24 Sold (MLS) $54,000 UNYREIS
• 2008-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2007-09-12 Listed $66,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,171 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.