411 E Lincoln St

Monticello, IL 61856

$139,950C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,491/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$195
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $249/mo
• Annual: $2,988/yr
• Cap rate: 8.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.62%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $39,186

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#69 in IL, #1,132 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Monticello CUSD 25 (town): math 30% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #123 of 620 in IL (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Piatt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Piatt County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $103k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.5% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.