807 Painted Pony Ln

Atoka, NM 88210

$319,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,547 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,635/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax + insurance: −$257
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $151/mo
• Annual: $1,816/yr
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $89,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (17.4% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $263k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#99 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Artesia Public Schools (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #17 of 95 in NM (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grand Heights Early Childhood (336 students, 47% FRL); Artesia Zia Intermediate (546 students, 50% FRL); Artesia High (math 44% / reading 74%, grade C+, #27 of 110 statewide, top 28%, 766 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Artesia Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.