807 Painted Pony Ln · Atoka, NM 88210

$319,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,547 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1994 0.93 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

All brick home on . 93 of an acre. Needs to have some things completed as in flooring, painting, some fixtures, and heating and cooling but for this price add a little work and this property would be a showplace for someone wanting just on the edge of town. 30x40 carport needs a few panels to complete as well as the fence. Coop water meter and membership will be transferred with the property. Hurry to see, this property won't last long.

Key facts

• 0.93 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1994

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#99 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Artesia Public Schools (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #17 of 95 in NM (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grand Heights Early Childhood (336 students, 47% FRL); Artesia Zia Intermediate (546 students, 50% FRL); Artesia High (math 44% / reading 74%, grade C+, #27 of 110 statewide, top 28%, 766 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+24 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Artesia Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,494 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-42,182
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-24,844
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88210

• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,494/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,443

Max offer price $319,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $332	-5% $242	+0% $151	+5% $61	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-57	-5% $47	+0% $151	+5% $255	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $232	base $151	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $-15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1402 W Briscoe Ave Artesia, NM	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,750	$1.12	46d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-24
   listed $319,000
2. 2026-03-24
   historical
3. 2015-06-09
   soldstatus
4. 2014-02-10
   soldstatus
5. 2014-02-07
   soldstatus 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   All brick home on . 93 of an acre. Needs to have some things completed as in flooring, painting, some fixtures, and heating and cooling but for this price add a little work and this property would be a showplace for someone wanting just on the edge of town. 30x40 carport needs a few panels to complete as well as the fence. Coop water meter and membership will be transferred with the property. Hurry to see, this property won't last long.

6. 2014-01-17
   listed $150,000 440-char remark

   Show marketing remark (440 chars)

   All brick home on . 93 of an acre. Needs to have some things completed as in flooring, painting, some fixtures, and heating and cooling but for this price add a little work and this property would be a showplace for someone wanting just on the edge of town. 30x40 carport needs a few panels to complete as well as the fence. Coop water meter and membership will be transferred with the property. Hurry to see, this property won't last long.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,552 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,058/yr (+$88/mo · 70.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$1,494
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,530
• − Management: −$2,530
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$3,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$883
• After-tax cash flow: $2,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Artesia Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500120
• Math proficiency: 29% —
• Reading proficiency: 42% —
• Median HH income: $51,397
• Composite: 33.48/100
• National rank: #10522
• State rank: #17 of 95 in NM

Livability — Atoka

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #18287

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 18,542
• Household income: $79,632
• Rent vs Own: 28.7% rent · 71.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 159.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 40% Two or more races 19% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 50%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.85%
• Current HPI: 115.6107
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+112.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Delisted — NMMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $319,000 NMMLS
• 2015-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-02-07 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2014-01-17 Listed $150,000 NMMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,494 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.