11701 E Norman Ave

Buffalo Soapstone, AK 99645

$279,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Built 2005 · Other · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,207/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,466
• Tax + insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-191/mo
• Annual: $-2,295/yr
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.93%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $78,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (21.0% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#158 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swanson Elementary (406 students, 45% FRL); Palmer Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #24 of 36 statewide, top 69%, 594 students, 46% FRL); Palmer High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #28 of 61 statewide, top 50%, 760 students, 33% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.