11701 E Norman Ave · Buffalo Soapstone, AK 99645

$279,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · Other public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2005 1.80 ac lot $149/sqft · 48% below area Est $534k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Access trails right from your backyard, property backs to section line easement! Built in 2005, this 3 bed, 2 bath home offers 1,872 SF with great potential. Some updates completed while others remain. Sold AS-IS. No stove included. Enstar meter installed however natural gas has not been run into the house. Great fixer opportunity

Key facts

• 1.8 acre lot
• Built 2005
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Detached; Built in 2005
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Other foundation; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Gravel road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Garbage disposal

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (12.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#158 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swanson Elementary (406 students, 45% FRL); Palmer Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #24 of 36 statewide, top 69%, 594 students, 46% FRL); Palmer High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #28 of 61 statewide, top 50%, 760 students, 33% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $220,700 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.93%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $533,924
• List price: $279,500
• Delta: -47.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-57,436
• Equity at exit: $41,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-65,555
• Equity at exit: $24,166

Cash invested: $78,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99645

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,466
• Tax from tax record: −$353 /mo · $4,231/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $245,716

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-112	+0% $-191	+5% $-270	+10% $-349
Rent	-10% $-366	-5% $-278	+0% $-191	+5% $-104	+10% $-17
Rate	-1.0pp $-50	-0.5pp $-120	base $-191	+0.5pp $-264	+1.0pp $-337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,875
• Closing costs: $8,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $279,500 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,500 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,500 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $279,500 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricedays on market $299,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $320,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $320,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $340,000 Active 371-char remark
18. 2019-03-21
    soldstatus
19. 2018-07-16
    listed $165,000
20. 2016-10-11
    listed $200,000
21. 2011-05-25
    soldstatus
22. 2008-05-01
    soldstatus
23. 2007-11-16
    listed $28,000
24. 2006-07-26
    listed $39,000
25. 2005-09-23
    listed $35,000
26. 2005-08-03
    soldstatus
27. 2005-05-12
    listed $28,000
28. 2005-01-27
    soldstatus
29. 2004-04-06
    soldstatus
30. 2003-04-03
    listed $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,231 · $353/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,231 · $353/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,656
• − Property taxes: −$4,231
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,119
• − Management: −$2,119
• − Depreciation: −$8,131
• Taxable loss: −$7,169
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,721
• After-tax cash flow: $-574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Buffalo Soapstone

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #23784

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo Soapstone, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 32,103
• Household income: $100,455
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 539.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.20%
• Current HPI: 210.5448
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+2136.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $279,500 AKMLS
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $299,000 AKMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $320,000 AKMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $340,000 AKMLS
• 2019-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-16 Listed $165,000 AKMLS
• 2016-10-11 Listed $200,000 AKMLS
• 2011-05-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-11-16 Listed $28,000 AKMLS
• 2006-07-26 Listed $39,000 AKMLS
• 2005-09-23 Listed $35,000 AKMLS
• 2005-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-05-12 Listed $28,000 AKMLS
• 2005-01-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-04-03 Listed $12,500 AKMLS

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,231 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.