460 Quail Hollow Blvd

Alford, FL 32428

$160,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,104/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-85/mo
• Annual: $-1,024/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (31.0% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#819 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Washington (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #45 of 73 in FL (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kate M. Smith Elementary School (math 58% / reading 60%, grade B-, #722 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 941 students, 61% FRL); Roulhac Middle School (math 61% / reading 53%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 440 students, 54% FRL); Chipley High School (math 35% / reading 50%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 588 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 784 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $160k implies a 196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.8% in Alford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.