460 Quail Hollow Blvd · Chipley, FL 32428

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1993 3.76 ac lot $150/sqft · 26% below area Est $215k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unrestricted 3.76-acre property offering privacy, flexibility, and multiple use options in a quiet rural setting just south of Chipley. This unique offering includes two adjacent parcels (survey available) on a paved road with no HOA or restrictions--ideal for a homesite, investment, or multi-family setup. Existing improvements include a 1993 3BR/2BA single-wide mobile home (14x76) with metal roof, a large metal building perfect for workshop/storage, and two additional outbuildings--one with potential for conversion into a recreational space or guest quarters. The land itself is the true highlight, providing plenty of room to build, expand, or bring in additional homes. Enjoy peaceful surroundings with no nearby neighbors in view while still being within reasonable driving distance to town. Parcel included: 00000000-00-0002-0075.

Key facts

• 3.76 acre lot
• Built 1993
• Listed 78 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.1% in Chipley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#614 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Washington (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #45 of 73 in FL (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kate M. Smith Elementary School (math 58% / reading 60%, grade B-, #722 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 941 students, 61% FRL); Roulhac Middle School (math 61% / reading 53%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 440 students, 54% FRL); Chipley High School (math 35% / reading 50%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 588 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 784 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $160k implies a 196% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,421 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.29%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,000
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -25.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3170 Wheeler Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	955 (-10%)	2mo	$265,000	$277	48
476 Coralvine Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (+14%)	23mo	$129,000	$106	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-31,437
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-34,675
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32428

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 784
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,104 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $623/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $-85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,212

Max offer price $144,924

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5	-5% $-40	+0% $-85	+5% $-131	+10% $-176
Rent	-10% $-173	-5% $-129	+0% $-85	+5% $-42	+10% $2
Rate	-1.0pp $-5	-0.5pp $-45	base $-85	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $160,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $200,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-03-25
    status Active 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Unrestricted 3.76-acre property offering privacy, flexibility, and multiple use options in a quiet rural setting just south of Chipley. This unique offering includes two adjacent parcels (survey available) on a paved road with no HOA or restrictions--ideal for a homesite, investment, or multi-family setup. Existing improvements include a 1993 3BR/2BA single-wide mobile home (14x76) with metal roof, a large metal building perfect for workshop/storage, and two additional outbuildings--one with potential for conversion into a recreational space or guest quarters. The land itself is the true highlight, providing plenty of room to build, expand, or bring in additional homes. Enjoy peaceful surroundings with no nearby neighbors in view while still being within reasonable driving distance to town. Parcel included: 00000000-00-0002-0075.

12. 2026-03-25
    price $200,000 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Unrestricted 3.76-acre property offering privacy, flexibility, and multiple use options in a quiet rural setting just south of Chipley. This unique offering includes two adjacent parcels (survey available) on a paved road with no HOA or restrictions--ideal for a homesite, investment, or multi-family setup. Existing improvements include a 1993 3BR/2BA single-wide mobile home (14x76) with metal roof, a large metal building perfect for workshop/storage, and two additional outbuildings--one with potential for conversion into a recreational space or guest quarters. The land itself is the true highlight, providing plenty of room to build, expand, or bring in additional homes. Enjoy peaceful surroundings with no nearby neighbors in view while still being within reasonable driving distance to town. Parcel included: 00000000-00-0002-0075.

13. 2026-03-18
    status Pending 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Unrestricted 3.76-acre property offering privacy, flexibility, and multiple use options in a quiet rural setting just south of Chipley. This unique offering includes two adjacent parcels (survey available) on a paved road with no HOA or restrictions--ideal for a homesite, investment, or multi-family setup. Existing improvements include a 1993 3BR/2BA single-wide mobile home (14x76) with metal roof, a large metal building perfect for workshop/storage, and two additional outbuildings--one with potential for conversion into a recreational space or guest quarters. The land itself is the true highlight, providing plenty of room to build, expand, or bring in additional homes. Enjoy peaceful surroundings with no nearby neighbors in view while still being within reasonable driving distance to town. Parcel included: 00000000-00-0002-0075.

14. 2026-03-18
    listed $140,000 Active 841-char remark

    Show marketing remark (841 chars)

    Unrestricted 3.76-acre property offering privacy, flexibility, and multiple use options in a quiet rural setting just south of Chipley. This unique offering includes two adjacent parcels (survey available) on a paved road with no HOA or restrictions--ideal for a homesite, investment, or multi-family setup. Existing improvements include a 1993 3BR/2BA single-wide mobile home (14x76) with metal roof, a large metal building perfect for workshop/storage, and two additional outbuildings--one with potential for conversion into a recreational space or guest quarters. The land itself is the true highlight, providing plenty of room to build, expand, or bring in additional homes. Enjoy peaceful surroundings with no nearby neighbors in view while still being within reasonable driving distance to town. Parcel included: 00000000-00-0002-0075.

15. 2021-09-11
    historical
16. 2021-07-23
    listed $199,900
17. 2006-10-23
    soldstatus $54,000
18. 2005-10-06
    soldstatus $46,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $623 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: +$705/yr (+$59/mo · 113.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,251
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$623
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,060
• − Management: −$1,060
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,910
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$938
• After-tax cash flow: $-86/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Washington
• NCES district ID: 1202010
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,948
• Composite: 41.12/100
• National rank: #3561
• State rank: #45 of 73 in FL

Livability — Chipley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #11863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,015

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,087 people
• By 2030: 23,600 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 22,643 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,524 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 18,432 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 13,298 · -44.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 13% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 17.0% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+61.1 2016: R+57.1 2012: R+47.4 2008: R+47.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.96%
• Current HPI: 247.8492
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+334.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $200,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $140,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-09-11 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-07-23 Listed $199,900 CPARMLS
• 2006-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $623 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.