160 Ethridge Pl

Gray, GA 31032

$228,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 2009 · SingleFamily · Pending · 163 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,951/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax + insurance: −$323
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $22/mo
• Annual: $268/yr
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $63,840

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $228k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($268/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (14.4% below list).
• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#26 in GA, #3,600 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jones County (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #72 of 174 in GA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jones County High School (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #210 of 424 statewide, top 50%, 1,626 students, 47% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jones County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $228k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.3% in Gray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.