160 Ethridge Pl · Gray, GA 31032

$228,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 163 Days on market

Built 2009 1.40 ac lot $167/sqft · 6% above area Est $215k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home offers the perfect combination of peaceful county living and convenience, located just 10 minutes from Gray and Macon. Recent updates include a new HVAC system and hot water heater installed in July 2025, a recently maintained metal roof, and an HVAC warranty, offering added value and peace of mind. The open-concept layout is ideal for everyday living and entertaining, with room to make it your own by adding your favorite paint colors and flooring choices. Outside, enjoy room to relax plus two storage sheds for additional storage, hobbies, tools, or lawn equipment. A great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for a home with updates, space, and potential.

Key facts

• 1.4 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2009

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($268/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.3% in Gray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#26 in GA, #3,600 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jones County (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #72 of 174 in GA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jones County High School (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #210 of 424 statewide, top 50%, 1,626 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 94 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jones County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $228k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,081 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.67%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,373
• List price: $228,000
• Delta: 5.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
143 Ragan Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+15%)	2mo	$201,000	$128	54
108 Ragan Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (+14%)	9mo	$229,500	$148	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.92% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-25,053
• Equity at exit: $45,143

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-10,625
• Equity at exit: $39,403

Cash invested: $63,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31032

• Home prices YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax from tax record: −$162 /mo · $1,941/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,923

Max offer price $228,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $87	+0% $22	+5% $-42	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-55	+0% $22	+5% $99	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $137	-0.5pp $80	base $22	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,000
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $228,000 Pending 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $228,000 Active Under Contract 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $228,000 Active Under Contract 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,000 Active Under Contract 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $228,000 Active Under Contract 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $228,000 Active Under Contract 155 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $228,000 Active Under Contract 154 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $228,000 Active 153 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $228,000 Active 152 DOM
10. 2026-04-24
    price $228,000 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    This charming home offers the perfect combination of peaceful county living and convenience, located just 10 minutes from Gray and Macon. Recent updates include a new HVAC system and hot water heater installed in July 2025, a recently maintained metal roof, and an HVAC warranty, offering added value and peace of mind. The open-concept layout is ideal for everyday living and entertaining, with room to make it your own by adding your favorite paint colors and flooring choices. Outside, enjoy room to relax plus two storage sheds for additional storage, hobbies, tools, or lawn equipment. A great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for a home with updates, space, and potential.

11. 2026-03-11
    price $232,500 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    This charming home offers the perfect combination of peaceful county living and convenience, located just 10 minutes from Gray and Macon. Recent updates include a new HVAC system and hot water heater installed in July 2025, a recently maintained metal roof, and an HVAC warranty, offering added value and peace of mind. The open-concept layout is ideal for everyday living and entertaining, with room to make it your own by adding your favorite paint colors and flooring choices. Outside, enjoy room to relax plus two storage sheds for additional storage, hobbies, tools, or lawn equipment. A great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for a home with updates, space, and potential.

12. 2025-12-29
    listed $240,000 Active 710-char remark

    Show marketing remark (710 chars)

    This charming home offers the perfect combination of peaceful county living and convenience, located just 10 minutes from Gray and Macon. Recent updates include a new HVAC system and hot water heater installed in July 2025, a recently maintained metal roof, and an HVAC warranty, offering added value and peace of mind. The open-concept layout is ideal for everyday living and entertaining, with room to make it your own by adding your favorite paint colors and flooring choices. Outside, enjoy room to relax plus two storage sheds for additional storage, hobbies, tools, or lawn equipment. A great opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for a home with updates, space, and potential.

13. 2013-11-22
    soldstatus $72,000 113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (113 chars)

    Ranch home located in Jones County. 4 Bedroom/2Bath. Large living room. Eat in kitchen area. Convenient location.

14. 2009-02-24
    soldstatus $8,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,941 · $162/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,098 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$157/yr (+$13/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,772
• − Property taxes: −$1,941
• − Insurance: −$1,937
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − Depreciation: −$6,633
• Taxable loss: −$3,618
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$868
• After-tax cash flow: $1,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jones County
• NCES district ID: 1303150
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,630
• Composite: 28.84/100
• National rank: #6649
• State rank: #72 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gray

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #3600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,755

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,682 people
• By 2030: 28,394 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 27,246 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,575 · -10.8%
• By 2075: 21,857 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 17,453 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 18% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.8% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+28.7 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.92%
• Current HPI: 211.7341
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+2582.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $228,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $232,500 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-29 Listed $240,000 Hive MLS
• 2013-11-22 Sold (MLS) $72,000 GAMLS
• 2009-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,941 · +27.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.