1439 N Forest Rd #1

University at Buffalo, NY 14221

$174,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · Built 1968 · Condo · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,954/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax + insurance: −$370
• HOA: −$392
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-133/mo
• Annual: $-1,601/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $48,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $174k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-133 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (13.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $151k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#9 in NY, #176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D+, employment F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; HOA is 20% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.8% in University at Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?