1439 N Forest Rd #1 · University at Buffalo, NY 14221

$174,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · Condo public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1968 $392/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WELL KEPT 1ST FL UNIT, LIVING RM, DINING RM, KITCHEN WITH UPDATED FLOORING. UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS, GRANITE COUNTER, SUBWAY TILE BCKWPLS, ALL APPLIANCES STAY. TWO BDRMS TWO FULL BATHS, SLIDER TO BALCONY, MASTER BDRM BATH WITH SHOWER, ALL FRESHLY PAINTED, PLUS FREE COMMON LAUNDRY IN BASEMNT. WITH PRIVATE STORAGE UNIT. ONE CAR ATT GARAGE #29 IN BUILDING 17, COMPLEX HAS INGROUND POOL, SHORT WALK TO AUDOBON GOLF COURSE, BIKE AND WALKING PATH, RESTAURANTS, BANKS, NO PETS ALLOWED. SHOWINGS START IMMEDIATELY. ANY OFFERS WILL BE REVIEWED FEBRUARY 8, 2021 AT 6 PM

Key facts

• Large living room
• 1st floor unit
• $392 HOA

Tags

• 1ST FLOOR UNIT
• FULLY APPLIANCED KITCHEN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• PATIO OVERLOOKING GREEN SPACE
• SEPARATE BASEMENT AREA
• FREE COMMON AREA LAUNDRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (12.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.8% in University at Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#9 in NY, #176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D+, employment F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 334 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,169 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-31,960
• Equity at exit: $26,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,590
• Equity at exit: $15,088

Cash invested: $48,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,963 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$915
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,899/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$392
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,123

Max offer price $152,169

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-28	-5% $-77	+0% $-126	+5% $-176	+10% $-225
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-204	+0% $-126	+5% $-49	+10% $29
Rate	-1.0pp $-39	-0.5pp $-82	base $-126	+0.5pp $-172	+1.0pp $-218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,625
• Closing costs: $5,235
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1325 N Forest Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	870	$1,748	$2.01	3d	9	0.24mi
116 Segsbury Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,950	$1.98	25d	1	0.87mi
990 Hopkins Rd Unit G Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	13d	1	1.17mi
1525 Amherst Manor Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	3d	5	1.38mi
540 Mill St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,095	$1.61	3d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $392 · $4,704/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $174,500 Active
3. 2021-03-11
   soldstatus $160,000
4. 2021-02-24
   soldstatus $160,000 Closed Sale or Rented 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   WELL KEPT 1ST FL UNIT, LIVING RM, DINING RM, KITCHEN WITH UPDATED FLOORING. UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS, GRANITE COUNTER, SUBWAY TILE BCKWPLS, ALL APPLIANCES STAY. TWO BDRMS TWO FULL BATHS, SLIDER TO BALCONY, MASTER BDRM BATH WITH SHOWER, ALL FRESHLY PAINTED, PLUS FREE COMMON LAUNDRY IN BASEMNT. WITH PRIVATE STORAGE UNIT. ONE CAR ATT GARAGE #29 IN BUILDING 17, COMPLEX HAS INGROUND POOL, SHORT WALK TO AUDOBON GOLF COURSE, BIKE AND WALKING PATH, RESTAURANTS, BANKS, NO PETS ALLOWED. SHOWINGS START IMMEDIATELY. ANY OFFERS WILL BE REVIEWED FEBRUARY 8, 2021 AT 6 PM

5. 2021-02-11
   status Pending Sale 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   WELL KEPT 1ST FL UNIT, LIVING RM, DINING RM, KITCHEN WITH UPDATED FLOORING. UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS, GRANITE COUNTER, SUBWAY TILE BCKWPLS, ALL APPLIANCES STAY. TWO BDRMS TWO FULL BATHS, SLIDER TO BALCONY, MASTER BDRM BATH WITH SHOWER, ALL FRESHLY PAINTED, PLUS FREE COMMON LAUNDRY IN BASEMNT. WITH PRIVATE STORAGE UNIT. ONE CAR ATT GARAGE #29 IN BUILDING 17, COMPLEX HAS INGROUND POOL, SHORT WALK TO AUDOBON GOLF COURSE, BIKE AND WALKING PATH, RESTAURANTS, BANKS, NO PETS ALLOWED. SHOWINGS START IMMEDIATELY. ANY OFFERS WILL BE REVIEWED FEBRUARY 8, 2021 AT 6 PM

6. 2021-02-09
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   WELL KEPT 1ST FL UNIT, LIVING RM, DINING RM, KITCHEN WITH UPDATED FLOORING. UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS, GRANITE COUNTER, SUBWAY TILE BCKWPLS, ALL APPLIANCES STAY. TWO BDRMS TWO FULL BATHS, SLIDER TO BALCONY, MASTER BDRM BATH WITH SHOWER, ALL FRESHLY PAINTED, PLUS FREE COMMON LAUNDRY IN BASEMNT. WITH PRIVATE STORAGE UNIT. ONE CAR ATT GARAGE #29 IN BUILDING 17, COMPLEX HAS INGROUND POOL, SHORT WALK TO AUDOBON GOLF COURSE, BIKE AND WALKING PATH, RESTAURANTS, BANKS, NO PETS ALLOWED. SHOWINGS START IMMEDIATELY. ANY OFFERS WILL BE REVIEWED FEBRUARY 8, 2021 AT 6 PM

7. 2021-01-25
   listed $149,777 Active 563-char remark

   Show marketing remark (563 chars)

   WELL KEPT 1ST FL UNIT, LIVING RM, DINING RM, KITCHEN WITH UPDATED FLOORING. UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS, GRANITE COUNTER, SUBWAY TILE BCKWPLS, ALL APPLIANCES STAY. TWO BDRMS TWO FULL BATHS, SLIDER TO BALCONY, MASTER BDRM BATH WITH SHOWER, ALL FRESHLY PAINTED, PLUS FREE COMMON LAUNDRY IN BASEMNT. WITH PRIVATE STORAGE UNIT. ONE CAR ATT GARAGE #29 IN BUILDING 17, COMPLEX HAS INGROUND POOL, SHORT WALK TO AUDOBON GOLF COURSE, BIKE AND WALKING PATH, RESTAURANTS, BANKS, NO PETS ALLOWED. SHOWINGS START IMMEDIATELY. ANY OFFERS WILL BE REVIEWED FEBRUARY 8, 2021 AT 6 PM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,899 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,924 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$25/yr (+$2/mo · 0.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,775
• − Property taxes: −$2,899
• − Insurance: −$1,539
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,884
• − Management: −$1,884
• − HOA: −$4,704
• − Depreciation: −$5,076
• Taxable loss: −$4,209
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,010
• After-tax cash flow: $-507/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — University at Buffalo

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #176

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 5,827
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+16.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $174,500 WNYREIS
• 2021-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-24 Sold (MLS) $160,000 WNYREIS
• 2021-02-11 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-02-09 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2021-01-25 Listed $149,777 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,899 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.