3105 Lynmar Ln

Keller, TX 76179

$257,499D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,919/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,350
• Tax + insurance: −$429
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-306/mo
• Annual: $-3,670/yr
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.09%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $72,100

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $257k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (25.5% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $192k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#15 in TX, #1,130 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Keller ISD (urban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Keller-Harvel El (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 484 students, 28% FRL); Keller Middle (math 68% / reading 70%, grade A, #69 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 921 students, 10% FRL); Keller H S (math 68% / reading 83%, grade A-, #78 of 1,632 statewide, top 5%, 3,089 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Keller ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1074 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.4% in Keller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.