3105 Lynmar Ln · Keller, TX 76179

$257,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,792 sqft lot $184/sqft · 28% below area Est $359k · 28% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Kitson

Key facts

• 4,792 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing conditions; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA and VA financing
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee (includes full use of facilities, grounds maintenance and management fees)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (garage faces rear) with two covered parking spaces; Garage approximately 20 ft wide by 18 ft deep
• Security: Burglar alarm; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Fire alarm; Prewired; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Concrete curb and gutter; Sidewalk; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction (incomplete) built 2025; One story; Not attached to another property; Deed restrictions
• Construction: Brick and fiber cement exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Landscaped interior lot; Lot dimensions approximately 40 x 120

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with built-in cabinets, island, eat-in area, natural stone/granite counters, walk-in pantry and water line to refrigerator; Electric oven; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks, linen closet and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s); Open floor plan with 2 living areas and 1 dining area; 7 total rooms; One-level layout
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup (utility features implied by appliance listing and pantry/water line)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $257k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.4% in Keller — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#15 in TX, #1,130 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Keller ISD (urban): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #91 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Keller-Harvel El (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 484 students, 28% FRL); Keller Middle (math 68% / reading 70%, grade A, #69 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 921 students, 10% FRL); Keller H S (math 68% / reading 83%, grade A-, #78 of 1,632 statewide, top 5%, 3,089 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Keller ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1074 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,862 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.09%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,450
• List price: $257,499
• Delta: -28.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-63,983
• Equity at exit: $38,394

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-91,860
• Equity at exit: $22,264

Cash invested: $72,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76179

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1074
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,350
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$322 /mo · $3,862/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,306

Max offer price $213,248

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-128	-5% $-217	+0% $-306	+5% $-395	+10% $-484
Rent	-10% $-457	-5% $-382	+0% $-306	+5% $-230	+10% $-154
Rate	-1.0pp $-176	-0.5pp $-240	base $-306	+0.5pp $-373	+1.0pp $-440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,375
• Closing costs: $7,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1310 N Main St Unit 1262 Keller, TX	2.0	2.0	1288	$1,762	$1.37	45d	1	0.65mi
1310 N Main St Unit 3158 Keller, TX	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,977	$1.37	45d	1	0.65mi
1400 N Main St Keller, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	872	$2,616	$3.00	1d	28	0.66mi
12737 Northern Pine Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1507	$2,050	$1.36	9d	1	0.81mi
116 Johnson Rd Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1581	$5,500	$3.48	45d	1	1.03mi
300 Bourland Rd Keller, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	899	$1,971	$2.19	1d	20	1.07mi
12752 Pricklybranch Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,375	$1.36	15d	1	1.16mi
333 Charles St Keller, TX	2.0	2.0	1776	$1,595	$0.90	45d	1	1.17mi
423 Marsha St Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,950	$1.63	23d	1	1.20mi
13048 Palancar Dr Keller, TX	3.0	2.0	1830	$2,450	$1.34	45d	1	1.20mi
219 Meadow Ct Unit B Keller, TX	2.0	1.5	970	$1,425	$1.47	45d	1	1.22mi
221 Meadow Ct Keller, TX	2.0	1.5	970	$1,500	$1.55	45d	1	1.23mi
719 Bluebonnet Dr Keller, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,550	$1.61	18d	1	1.29mi
724 Bluebonnet Dr Unit A Keller, TX	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,475	$1.42	26d	1	1.30mi
801 Bluebonnet Dr Unit B Keller, TX	2.0	1.5	982	$1,500	$1.53	45d	1	1.32mi
803 Bluebonnet Dr Apt D Keller, TX	2.0	1.5	970	$1,550	$1.60	45d	1	1.32mi
732 Bluebonnet Dr Unit A Keller, TX	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,329	$1.30	5d	1	1.33mi
732 Bluebonnet Dr Unit C Keller, TX	2.0	2.0	1020	$1,313	$1.29	26d	1	1.33mi
961 Indian Blanket Dr Keller, TX	2.0	2.0	1394	$1,850	$1.33	45d	1	1.34mi
738 Bluebonnet Dr Unit A Keller, TX	2.0	2.0	1058	$1,450	$1.37	23d	1	1.34mi
800 Bluebonnet Dr Unit B Keller, TX	2.0	1.5	969	$1,450	$1.50	1d	1	1.35mi
800 Bluebonnet Dr Unit B Keller, TX	2.0	1.5	969	$1,450	$1.50	26d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $257,499 22-char remark
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $262,499 Active 22-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,424
• − Property taxes: −$3,862
• − Insurance: −$1,287
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,491
• Taxable loss: −$8,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,975
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825260
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $92,106
• Composite: 48.46/100
• National rank: #2131
• State rank: #91 of 826 in TX

Livability — Keller

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #1130

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keller, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 40,936
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 80,090
• Household income: $107,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1494.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.12%
• Current HPI: 237.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.51%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $257,499 NTREIS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $262,499 NTREIS