9120 Hobbtown Rd

Cedarville, AR 72952

$91,500B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,127/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$480
• Tax + insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $258/mo
• Annual: $3,097/yr
• Cap rate: 9.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.09%
• DSCR: 1.54
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $25,620

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $92k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $258 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $90k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $633 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#155 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alma School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #111 of 238 in AR (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alma Primary School (701 students, 47% FRL); Alma Middle School (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #81 of 201 statewide, top 40%, 716 students, 44% FRL); Alma High School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #128 of 292 statewide, top 44%, 1,003 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Crawford County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.