915 Thornburg Rd

Hillcrest Heights, FL 33827

$289,900D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,844/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-355/mo
• Annual: $-4,265/yr
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (36.4% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#438 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $290k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.