915 Thornburg Rd · Hillcrest Heights, FL 33827

$289,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1988 0.69 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique 2 bed, 2 bath in the beautiful Babson park. This home offers a beautiful lake view just right across the street. Very quiet and comfortable area to live in. Don’t miss out on this 1 of a kind property.

Key facts

• 0.69 acre lot
• Paved patio
• Detached carport

Tags

• 0.69 ACRE LOT
• PAVED PATIO
• DETACHED CARPORT
• SEPARATE GARAGE WORKSHOP
• 2023 ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; Zoned R-1; Lot approximately 0.69 acres (100 x 302); 1 well and 1 septic system
• HOA & community: No HOA association reported

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (14 x 17); 1-car carport; Driveway; Off-street parking; RV carport
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available and connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two stories; East-facing
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on two levels
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Porch; Exterior lighting; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Living room/dining room combination; Stone countertops; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-355 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (36.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#438 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $290k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,405 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $135,165
• Equity at exit: $261,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $415,659
• Equity at exit: $563,212

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33827

• Home prices YoY: 16.6%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,053/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,294

Max offer price $227,127

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-191	-5% $-273	+0% $-355	+5% $-437	+10% $-519
Rent	-10% $-501	-5% $-428	+0% $-355	+5% $-283	+10% $-210
Rate	-1.0pp $-209	-0.5pp $-282	base $-355	+0.5pp $-430	+1.0pp $-507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-05-20
   price $289,900
2. 2026-04-27
   listed $299,900 Active
3. 2023-03-16
   soldstatus $165,000
4. 2023-03-13
   soldstatus $165,000 Closed 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Unique 2 bed, 2 bath in the beautiful Babson park. This home offers a beautiful lake view just right across the street. Very quiet and comfortable area to live in. Don’t miss out on this 1 of a kind property.

5. 2023-02-04
   status Pending 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Unique 2 bed, 2 bath in the beautiful Babson park. This home offers a beautiful lake view just right across the street. Very quiet and comfortable area to live in. Don’t miss out on this 1 of a kind property.

6. 2023-01-20
   price $190,000 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Unique 2 bed, 2 bath in the beautiful Babson park. This home offers a beautiful lake view just right across the street. Very quiet and comfortable area to live in. Don’t miss out on this 1 of a kind property.

7. 2022-12-28
   price $220,000 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Unique 2 bed, 2 bath in the beautiful Babson park. This home offers a beautiful lake view just right across the street. Very quiet and comfortable area to live in. Don’t miss out on this 1 of a kind property.

8. 2022-12-12
   listed $260,000 Active 214-char remark

   Show marketing remark (214 chars)

   Unique 2 bed, 2 bath in the beautiful Babson park. This home offers a beautiful lake view just right across the street. Very quiet and comfortable area to live in. Don’t miss out on this 1 of a kind property.

9. 2017-06-13
   soldstatus $129,000
10. 2017-06-09
    soldstatus $129,000 Sold 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    UNIQUE, CONTEMPORARY STYLE HOME. "THE OWL HOUSE!" LOCATED JUST MINUTES SOUTH OF LAKE WALES ON A QUIET STREET JUST A SHORT WALK TO CROOKED LAKE. LARGE LOT (. 72 ACRE) WITH LARGE OAK TREES FOR SHADE. OPEN LIVING ROOM DOWNSTAIRS WITH SPACIOUS MASTER BEDROOM UPSTAIRS OVERLOOKING THE LIVING ROOM. MASTER BEDROOM OPEN TO BALCONY/DECK OVERLOOKING THE FENCED BACK YARD. DINETTE AND SECOND BEDROOM OPENS TO A COVERED PATIO. YOU NEED TO SEE THIS HOME TO APPRECIATE ITS VALUE. SELLER WILL PAY UPTO 3% IN BUYERS CLOSING COSTS . .. OR. .. WOULD CONSIDER SHORT TERM LEASE OPTION WITH GOOD DOWN PAYMENT.

11. 2017-02-09
    status Pending 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    UNIQUE, CONTEMPORARY STYLE HOME. "THE OWL HOUSE!" LOCATED JUST MINUTES SOUTH OF LAKE WALES ON A QUIET STREET JUST A SHORT WALK TO CROOKED LAKE. LARGE LOT (. 72 ACRE) WITH LARGE OAK TREES FOR SHADE. OPEN LIVING ROOM DOWNSTAIRS WITH SPACIOUS MASTER BEDROOM UPSTAIRS OVERLOOKING THE LIVING ROOM. MASTER BEDROOM OPEN TO BALCONY/DECK OVERLOOKING THE FENCED BACK YARD. DINETTE AND SECOND BEDROOM OPENS TO A COVERED PATIO. YOU NEED TO SEE THIS HOME TO APPRECIATE ITS VALUE. SELLER WILL PAY UPTO 3% IN BUYERS CLOSING COSTS . .. OR. .. WOULD CONSIDER SHORT TERM LEASE OPTION WITH GOOD DOWN PAYMENT.

12. 2016-09-16
    price $129,900 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    UNIQUE, CONTEMPORARY STYLE HOME. "THE OWL HOUSE!" LOCATED JUST MINUTES SOUTH OF LAKE WALES ON A QUIET STREET JUST A SHORT WALK TO CROOKED LAKE. LARGE LOT (. 72 ACRE) WITH LARGE OAK TREES FOR SHADE. OPEN LIVING ROOM DOWNSTAIRS WITH SPACIOUS MASTER BEDROOM UPSTAIRS OVERLOOKING THE LIVING ROOM. MASTER BEDROOM OPEN TO BALCONY/DECK OVERLOOKING THE FENCED BACK YARD. DINETTE AND SECOND BEDROOM OPENS TO A COVERED PATIO. YOU NEED TO SEE THIS HOME TO APPRECIATE ITS VALUE. SELLER WILL PAY UPTO 3% IN BUYERS CLOSING COSTS . .. OR. .. WOULD CONSIDER SHORT TERM LEASE OPTION WITH GOOD DOWN PAYMENT.

13. 2016-06-10
    listed $139,900 Active 599-char remark

    Show marketing remark (599 chars)

    UNIQUE, CONTEMPORARY STYLE HOME. "THE OWL HOUSE!" LOCATED JUST MINUTES SOUTH OF LAKE WALES ON A QUIET STREET JUST A SHORT WALK TO CROOKED LAKE. LARGE LOT (. 72 ACRE) WITH LARGE OAK TREES FOR SHADE. OPEN LIVING ROOM DOWNSTAIRS WITH SPACIOUS MASTER BEDROOM UPSTAIRS OVERLOOKING THE LIVING ROOM. MASTER BEDROOM OPEN TO BALCONY/DECK OVERLOOKING THE FENCED BACK YARD. DINETTE AND SECOND BEDROOM OPENS TO A COVERED PATIO. YOU NEED TO SEE THIS HOME TO APPRECIATE ITS VALUE. SELLER WILL PAY UPTO 3% IN BUYERS CLOSING COSTS . .. OR. .. WOULD CONSIDER SHORT TERM LEASE OPTION WITH GOOD DOWN PAYMENT.

14. 2012-07-12
    historical
15. 2010-01-15
    listed $169,900
16. 2008-12-23
    soldstatus $145,000
17. 2008-12-19
    soldstatus $145,000
18. 2008-05-21
    listed $169,900
19. 2006-02-10
    listed $199,000
20. 2002-12-30
    soldstatus $85,000
21. 2001-04-20
    soldstatus $73,500
22. 1988-09-01
    soldstatus $76,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,053 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,406 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$353/yr (+$29/mo · 17.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$2,053
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$9,587
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,301
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hillcrest Heights

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #438
• US rank: #7838

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,438

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 63.49%
• Current HPI: 446.51
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+279.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-13 Sold (MLS) $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-20 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-28 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-12 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-09 Sold (MLS) $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-16 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-10 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-15 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2008-12-19 Sold (MLS) $145,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-21 Listed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-02-10 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 1988-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $76,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,053 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.