3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,440 sqft ·
Built 1990
· Manufactured
· Active
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,370/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$669
Tax + insurance
−$639
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$288
Net cashflow
$-225/mo
Annual
$-2,704/yr
Cap rate
8.19%
Cash-on-cash
6.76%
DSCR
1.30
1% rule
1.07%
Cash to close
$35,700
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-225 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (25.6% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $128k).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $95k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $14k of equity ($882 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#386 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Gulf (rural): math 47% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #49 of 73 in FL (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Wewahitchka Elementary School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 504 students, 55% FRL); Wewahitchka High School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 363 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 302 units permitted in Gulf County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Gulf County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $62k; list at $128k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.4% in Wewahitchka — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29