412 Monument Pl

Elizabethton, TN 37643

$278,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,448 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,572/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax + insurance: −$207
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-423/mo
• Annual: $-5,077/yr
• Cap rate: 4.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.52%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $77,840

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-423 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (43.4% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (43.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#121 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Elizabethton (suburban): math 36% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #35 of 139 in TN (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Side Elementary (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #92 of 952 statewide, top 10%, 371 students, 0% FRL); T A Dugger Junior High School (math 42% / reading 28%, grade F, #65 of 333 statewide, top 20%, 633 students, 0% FRL); Elizabethton High School (math 17% / reading 41%, grade F, #92 of 332 statewide, top 28%, 863 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 43% district-wide (43 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 184 units permitted in Carter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carter County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $278k implies a 153% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.6% in Elizabethton — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.