614 N Oak St

Vandalia, MO 63382

$165,000D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,909 sqft · Built 1959 · Other · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,265/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-385/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.83%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-385/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (23.3% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#324 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Van-Far R-I (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #218 of 324 in MO (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Van-Far Elem. (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 320 students, 53% FRL); Van-Far Jr./Sr. High (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 262 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Audrain County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Audrain County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.