614 N Oak St · Vandalia, MO 63382

$165,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,909 sqft · Other public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1959 0.33 ac lot $86/sqft · 9% above area Est $152k · 9% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Some homes are move-in ready - others are move-in and make-it-yours - and that's exactly what 614 N Oak is waiting for. With four bedrooms, two full baths, and a layout that just makes sense, there's a lot to work with here. The space speaks for itself. Four bedrooms give you the flexibility that most homes at this price simply can't offer — whether that's room for a growing family, a dedicated home office, or a guest room that actually feels like one. Two full bathrooms mean the morning rush stays manageable. The home also features a spacious composite deck off the back of the house.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-385/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#324 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Van-Far R-I (rural): math 30% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #218 of 324 in MO (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Van-Far Elem. (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #676 of 1,115 statewide, top 66%, 320 students, 53% FRL); Van-Far Jr./Sr. High (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #321 of 521 statewide, top 67%, 262 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Audrain County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Audrain County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,544 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.83%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,780
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: 8.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $87,772
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.63×
• Total profit: $259,986
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63382

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,265 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,173/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,306

Max offer price $159,330

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $15	+0% $-32	+5% $-79	+10% $-125
Rent	-10% $-132	-5% $-82	+0% $-32	+5% $18	+10% $68
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $10	base $-32	+0.5pp $-75	+1.0pp $-118

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   Some homes are move-in ready - others are move-in and make-it-yours - and that's exactly what 614 N Oak is waiting for. With four bedrooms, two full baths, and a layout that just makes sense, there's a lot to work with here. The space speaks for itself. Four bedrooms give you the flexibility that most homes at this price simply can't offer — whether that's room for a growing family, a dedicated home office, or a guest room that actually feels like one. Two full bathrooms mean the morning rush stays manageable. The home also features a spacious composite deck off the back of the house.

2. 2026-03-31
   status Active 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   Some homes are move-in ready - others are move-in and make-it-yours - and that's exactly what 614 N Oak is waiting for. With four bedrooms, two full baths, and a layout that just makes sense, there's a lot to work with here. The space speaks for itself. Four bedrooms give you the flexibility that most homes at this price simply can't offer — whether that's room for a growing family, a dedicated home office, or a guest room that actually feels like one. Two full bathrooms mean the morning rush stays manageable. The home also features a spacious composite deck off the back of the house.

3. 2026-03-31
   price $165,000 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   Some homes are move-in ready - others are move-in and make-it-yours - and that's exactly what 614 N Oak is waiting for. With four bedrooms, two full baths, and a layout that just makes sense, there's a lot to work with here. The space speaks for itself. Four bedrooms give you the flexibility that most homes at this price simply can't offer — whether that's room for a growing family, a dedicated home office, or a guest room that actually feels like one. Two full bathrooms mean the morning rush stays manageable. The home also features a spacious composite deck off the back of the house.

4. 2026-03-26
   listed $171,000 Active 598-char remark

   Show marketing remark (598 chars)

   Some homes are move-in ready - others are move-in and make-it-yours - and that's exactly what 614 N Oak is waiting for. With four bedrooms, two full baths, and a layout that just makes sense, there's a lot to work with here. The space speaks for itself. Four bedrooms give you the flexibility that most homes at this price simply can't offer — whether that's room for a growing family, a dedicated home office, or a guest room that actually feels like one. Two full bathrooms mean the morning rush stays manageable. The home also features a spacious composite deck off the back of the house.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,173 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,600 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$427/yr (+$36/mo · 36.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,173
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,215
• − Management: −$1,215
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$788
• After-tax cash flow: $403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van-Far R-I
• NCES district ID: 2930780
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,980
• Composite: 29.57/100
• National rank: #6486
• State rank: #218 of 324 in MO

Livability — Vandalia

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #14831

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vandalia, MO
• City population: 4,127
• Population (ZIP): 4,127

Population outlook (Audrain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,791 people
• By 2030: 28,684 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 30,598 · +10.1%
• By 2050: 32,319 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 36,395 · +31.0%
• By 2100: 37,277 · +34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Audrain

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.6) · D 25.6% · R 73.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.6pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -47.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.6 2020: R+47.2 2016: R+44.0 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.81%
• Current HPI: 182.948
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $165,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Listed $171,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,173 · -1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.