5866 Robin Oak Dr

Oak Glen, CA 92305

$249,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Active · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,504/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$351
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $316/mo
• Annual: $3,796/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,386 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $250k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.6% in Oak Glen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.