5866 Robin Oak Dr · Oak Glen, CA 92305

$249,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1987 6,000 sqft lot $187/sqft · 30% below area Est $391k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks

Experience the magic of all four seasons in picturesque Angelus Oaks, where vibrant autumn colors, crisp mountain air, and peaceful winter snowfall create a truly unforgettable setting. Privately tucked away from the road among towering pines and majestic oaks, this three-story mountain retreat offers the perfect balance of comfort, character, and serene natural beauty. The welcoming entry level features a cozy family room centered around a charming wood-burning stove, creating the ideal space to relax after a day outdoors. This level also includes a convenient laundry area and additional storage, thoughtfully designed for practical mountain living. Central heating and the wood-burning stov

Key facts

• Wraparound deck
• Wood burning stove
• 6,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• WRAPAROUND DECK
• PRIVATE LOFT STYLE BEDROOM
• SECLUDED THIRD FLOOR DECK
• STRIKING BLACK FRONT DOOR
• BREATHTAKING FOREST VIEWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Special assessments
• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking for 4 vehicles; Paved driveway (asphalt)
• Utilities: Public (district) water; Public sewer (connected/available); Electricity on property (connected/available); Propane available
• Home design: House; Three or more levels; Entry at level 1
• Construction: Composition roof; No common walls; One unit; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Deck/patio; Fenced (see remarks); No pool; Secluded lot, up slope from street; Paved driveway and paved road frontage; Access via county road; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Remodeled kitchen; Kitchen open to family room; Free-standing range; Eating area
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: See remarks
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (remodeled) with shower-in-tub
• Heating & cooling: Fireplace heating; Fireplaces in living room and family room
• Interior features: Balcony; Living room balcony; Built-ins; High ceilings (9+ feet); Cathedral/vaulted ceilings; Open floor plan; Storage space; Two staircases; Double pane windows; Two or more access exits
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.6% in Oak Glen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#1,386 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $250k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.43%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $390,820
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -23.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6034 Mountain Home Creek Rd	0.19mi	2/1.0	1,323 (-1%)	21mo	$385,000	$291	73
6069 Maple	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,518 (+14%)	1mo	$383,000	$252	58
6301 Cedar Ave	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,452 (+9%)	4mo	$465,000	$320	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.46% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $56,333
• Equity at exit: $118,837

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $164,946
• Equity at exit: $188,341

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92305

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,504 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$247 /mo · $2,962/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,103

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-03-19
    listed $298,900 Active 1539-char remark
16. 2026-03-06
    historical
17. 2025-12-09
    price $299,900
18. 2025-11-13
    listed $349,900 Active
19. 2004-06-08
    soldstatus $165,000
20. 2004-06-08
    soldstatus $165,000
21. 2004-05-03
    listed $175,000
22. 1983-02-11
    soldstatus $11,000
23. 1981-03-05
    soldstatus $10,000
24. 1981-03-05
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,962 · $247/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,962 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 10 d/yr ≥87°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 43 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,962
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,403
• − Management: −$2,403
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$58
• After-tax cash flow: $3,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oak Glen

• Score: 40/100
• State rank: #1386
• US rank: #27266

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 371

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Iranian 3% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 21%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.46%
• Current HPI: 307.1726
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2399.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $249,900 CRMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $298,900 CRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $299,900 CRMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $349,900 CRMLS
• 2004-06-08 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-08 Sold (MLS) $165,000 CRMLS
• 2004-05-03 Listed $175,000 CRMLS
• 1983-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 1981-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1981-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,962 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.