41 Popcorn Ln

Aspen, CO 81611

$49,900,000D-

7 bd · 9.0 ba · 11,421 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Active · 562 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,302/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$261,681
• Tax + insurance: −$30,544
• HOA: −$741
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,373
• Net cashflow: $-284,037/mo
• Annual: $-3,408,448/yr
• Cap rate: -0.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -24.39%
• DSCR: -0.09
• 1% rule: 0.02%
• Cash to close: $13,972,000

Investor read

• This is a 7-bed/9.0-bath single-family listed at $49.90M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284k ($-3.41M/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.18M (97.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.13M (97.7% below list).
• It's been on market 562 days — a 12% lower offer ($43.91M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.13M (97.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5.33M of equity ($345k loan paydown + $4.99M appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Aspen Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #321 of 966 statewide, top 35%, 440 students, 0% FRL); Aspen Middle School (math 30% / reading 49%, grade F, #84 of 270 statewide, top 32%, 443 students, 0% FRL); Aspen High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #53 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 529 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14.10M (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32.00M; list at $49.90M implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$8.58M cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $11,302/mo this rent would consume 164% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 562 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 98% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?