41 Popcorn Ln · Aspen, CO 81611

$49,900,000

7 bd · 9.0 ba · 11,421 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 561 Days on market

Built 2015 2.18 ac lot $4369/sqft · at area comps Est $65754k · 24% under $741/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A unique opportunity to own a two-acre riverfront estate only nine minutes from Aspen Mountain. Boasting unobstructed views of Independence Pass and river access out your back door, this property is in a class by itself. A timeless design exterior with recent interior renovations has reimagined this prominent Aspen estate into a bright, contemporary legacy family retreat featuring clean lines and refined finishes. High-end materials complement the natural beauty of the bucolic setting. The thoughtful two-level layout features a grand entry, a living room with floor-to-ceiling windows, a luxurious primary suite with dual baths, four guest suites, a chef's kitchen with a butler's pantry, a walk-in wine room, and a separate media room. Situated on 2.1 level acres, this estate includes a three-car garage and gated entry for the utmost privacy. This remarkable retreat offers a rare combination of seclusion, sophistication, and convenience—just moments from downtown Aspen. A true legacy property for those who demand the very best.

Key facts

• 2.18 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 2015

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/9.0-bath single-family listed at $49.90M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284k ($-3.41M/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.18M (97.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.13M (97.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.13M (97.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#142 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta (rural): math 36% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #18 of 86 in CO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Aspen Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #321 of 966 statewide, top 35%, 440 students, 0% FRL); Aspen Middle School (math 30% / reading 49%, grade F, #84 of 270 statewide, top 32%, 443 students, 0% FRL); Aspen High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #53 of 381 statewide, top 17%, 529 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+22.1%/yr); 324 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 145 units permitted in Pitkin County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $11,302/mo this rent would consume 164% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 566% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5.33M of equity ($345k loan paydown + $4.99M appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pitkin County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$8.58M cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 561 days — a 12% lower offer ($43.91M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14.10M (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32.00M; list at $49.90M implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,130,154 (97.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 561 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 98% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.02% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -24.39%
• DSCR: -0.09
• GRM: 367.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,753,781
• List price: $49,900,000
• Delta: -24.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $9,114,384
• Equity at exit: $44,953,873

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $41,151,498
• Equity at exit: $96,944,725

Cash invested: $13,972,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81611

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Rents YoY: 22.1%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 367.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,302 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$261,681
• Tax from tax record: −$9,696 /mo · $116,356/yr
• Insurance: −$20,792
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$741
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,373
• Net cashflow: $-284,037

Break-even live

Break-even rent $370,842

Max offer price $1,176,666

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-255,790	-5% $-269,914	+0% $-284,037	+5% $-298,161	+10% $-312,285
Rent	-10% $-284,930	-5% $-284,484	+0% $-284,037	+5% $-283,591	+10% $-283,145
Rate	-1.0pp $-258,908	-0.5pp $-271,346	base $-284,037	+0.5pp $-296,968	+1.0pp $-310,122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475,000
• Closing costs: $1,497,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $741 · $8,892/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,900,000 Active 561 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900,000 Active 559 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900,000 Active 558 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900,000 Active 557 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900,000 Active 556 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900,000 Active 555 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900,000 Active 553 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900,000 Active 552 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900,000 Active 549 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900,000 Active 548 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900,000 Active 547 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900,000 Active 544 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900,000 Active 542 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900,000 Active 541 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900,000 Active 540 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900,000 Active 539 DOM
17. 2025-10-31
    price $49,900,000 1046-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

    A unique opportunity to own a two-acre riverfront estate only nine minutes from Aspen Mountain. Boasting unobstructed views of Independence Pass and river access out your back door, this property is in a class by itself. A timeless design exterior with recent interior renovations has reimagined this prominent Aspen estate into a bright, contemporary legacy family retreat featuring clean lines and refined finishes. High-end materials complement the natural beauty of the bucolic setting. The thoughtful two-level layout features a grand entry, a living room with floor-to-ceiling windows, a luxurious primary suite with dual baths, four guest suites, a chef's kitchen with a butler's pantry, a walk-in wine room, and a separate media room. Situated on 2.1 level acres, this estate includes a three-car garage and gated entry for the utmost privacy. This remarkable retreat offers a rare combination of seclusion, sophistication, and convenience—just moments from downtown Aspen. A true legacy property for those who demand the very best.

18. 2025-10-31
    status Active 1046-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

    A unique opportunity to own a two-acre riverfront estate only nine minutes from Aspen Mountain. Boasting unobstructed views of Independence Pass and river access out your back door, this property is in a class by itself. A timeless design exterior with recent interior renovations has reimagined this prominent Aspen estate into a bright, contemporary legacy family retreat featuring clean lines and refined finishes. High-end materials complement the natural beauty of the bucolic setting. The thoughtful two-level layout features a grand entry, a living room with floor-to-ceiling windows, a luxurious primary suite with dual baths, four guest suites, a chef's kitchen with a butler's pantry, a walk-in wine room, and a separate media room. Situated on 2.1 level acres, this estate includes a three-car garage and gated entry for the utmost privacy. This remarkable retreat offers a rare combination of seclusion, sophistication, and convenience—just moments from downtown Aspen. A true legacy property for those who demand the very best.

19. 2025-03-13
    price $59,000,000 1046-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

    A unique opportunity to own a two-acre riverfront estate only nine minutes from Aspen Mountain. Boasting unobstructed views of Independence Pass and river access out your back door, this property is in a class by itself. A timeless design exterior with recent interior renovations has reimagined this prominent Aspen estate into a bright, contemporary legacy family retreat featuring clean lines and refined finishes. High-end materials complement the natural beauty of the bucolic setting. The thoughtful two-level layout features a grand entry, a living room with floor-to-ceiling windows, a luxurious primary suite with dual baths, four guest suites, a chef's kitchen with a butler's pantry, a walk-in wine room, and a separate media room. Situated on 2.1 level acres, this estate includes a three-car garage and gated entry for the utmost privacy. This remarkable retreat offers a rare combination of seclusion, sophistication, and convenience—just moments from downtown Aspen. A true legacy property for those who demand the very best.

20. 2024-11-21
    listed $64,000,000 Active 1046-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1046 chars)

    A unique opportunity to own a two-acre riverfront estate only nine minutes from Aspen Mountain. Boasting unobstructed views of Independence Pass and river access out your back door, this property is in a class by itself. A timeless design exterior with recent interior renovations has reimagined this prominent Aspen estate into a bright, contemporary legacy family retreat featuring clean lines and refined finishes. High-end materials complement the natural beauty of the bucolic setting. The thoughtful two-level layout features a grand entry, a living room with floor-to-ceiling windows, a luxurious primary suite with dual baths, four guest suites, a chef's kitchen with a butler's pantry, a walk-in wine room, and a separate media room. Situated on 2.1 level acres, this estate includes a three-car garage and gated entry for the utmost privacy. This remarkable retreat offers a rare combination of seclusion, sophistication, and convenience—just moments from downtown Aspen. A true legacy property for those who demand the very best.

21. 2020-09-09
    soldstatus $32,000,000 3685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (3685 chars)

    There may be no finer property to grace the banks of the Roaring Fork River that combines the attributes and amenities of this exclusive compound. Thoughtfully designed and meticulously crafted, the quality and style is undeniable. Combining an exquisite main house with a charming guest house and separate caretaker's quarters, these three primary living areas meld to create an unrivaled gated riverside retreat on 10.5 acres. The main house is over 13,000 square feet and includes 5 bedrooms, 6 full baths, 3 half baths, and a 4 car garage. Combined with the 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath guest house with 2 car garage and 1 bedroom, 1 bath caretaker's quarters there is a total of over 17,000 square feet of heated living space.Start every morning and end every night with the calming waters of the Roaring Fork running through the heart of the property. With enticing outdoor spaces, unobstructed Indy Pass views and river access literally outside the door, one is hard pressed to find a more engaging environment in which to live the mountain lifestyle. Built by Brikor Construction and designed by Chabon Architects from New York City, the unique and appropriate architectural details mimic the mountain setting - natural settlers stone, wire-brushed Douglas fir siding, slate roof - all complement the natural color and visual texture of the upper valley. Opulent finishes of blue Bahia granite, reclaimed Belgian Black stone flooring, and rift-oak paneling and cabinetry combine with an attentive and deliberate floor plan, grand entry with sweeping staircase, incredible living room with floor to ceiling windows to capture unrivaled views, chef's kitchen and butler's pantry with walk-in wine room, exquisite formal dining room, media room, and classic antique treasures collected worldwide specifically for their placement in this rare Aspen gem. An enviable oasis at the base of Independence Pass, the merging of location, easy access, extraordinary architecture, uncompromised attention to detail, and exceptional appointments redefines waterfront living likely never to be duplicated. The Guest House and Caretaker House are offered for sale together and only if purchased with the Main House. Start every morning and end every night with the calming waters of the Roaring Fork running through the heart of the property. With enticing outdoor spaces, unobstructed Indy Pass views and river access literally outside the door, one is hard pressed to find a more engaging environment in which to live the mountain lifestyle. Built by Brikor Construction and designed by Chabon Architects from New York City, the unique and appropriate architectural details mimic the mountain setting - natural settlers stone, wire-brushed Douglas fir siding, slate roof - all complement the natural color and visual texture of the upper valley. Opulent finishes of blue Bahia granite, reclaimed Belgian Black stone flooring, and rift-oak paneling and cabinetry combine with an attentive and deliberate floor plan, grand entry with sweeping staircase, incredible living room with floor to ceiling windows to capture unrivaled views, chef's kitchen and butler's pantry with walk-in wine room, exquisite formal dining room, media room, and classic antique treasures collected worldwide specifically for their placement in this rare Aspen gem. An enviable oasis at the base of Independence Pass, the merging of location, easy access, extraordinary architecture, uncompromised attention to detail, and exceptional appointments redefines waterfront living likely never to be duplicated. The Guest House and Caretaker House are offered for sale together and only if purchased with the Main House.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $116,356 · $9,696/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $274,450 · $22,871/mo
• Expected delta: +$158,094/yr (+$13,175/mo · 135.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 12 d/yr ≥75°F today · 32 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $135,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795,176
• − Property taxes: −$116,356
• − Insurance: −$250,167
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$10,849
• − Management: −$10,849
• − HOA: −$8,892
• − Depreciation: −$1,451,636
• Taxable loss: −$4,508,307
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,081,994
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,326,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aspen School District No. 1 In The County Of Pitkin And Sta
• NCES district ID: 0802280
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $66,694
• Composite: 40.98/100
• National rank: #3595
• State rank: #18 of 86 in CO

Livability — Aspen

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #11780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pitkin County · 9,068 people
• City population: 9,068
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,068
• Household income: $82,664
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 566.0

Population outlook (Pitkin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,121 people
• By 2030: 21,110 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 22,707 · +12.9%
• By 2050: 24,105 · +19.8%
• By 2075: 27,933 · +38.8%
• By 2100: 30,018 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Salvadoran 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pitkin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.2) · D 71.0% · R 26.8% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.6pp toward R · 2008: 48.8pp · 2024: 44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.2 2020: D+51.9 2016: D+45.4 2012: D+37.9 2008: D+48.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.97%
• Current HPI: 370.9593
• Rent YoY: ▲ 22.07%
• Metro: Glenwood Springs, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+55.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $49,900,000 AGMLS
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — AGMLS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $59,000,000 AGMLS
• 2024-11-21 Listed $64,000,000 AGMLS
• 2020-09-09 Sold (MLS) $32,000,000 AGMLS

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $116,356 · +71.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.