8536 Kern Canyon Rd #151

East Niles, CA 93306

$87,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,724/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax + insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$765
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-123/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.96%
• Cash to close: $24,612

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-123/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $86k (1.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $86k (1.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $88k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.