8536 Kern Canyon Rd #151 · East Niles, CA 93306

$87,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1994 $75/sqft · 6% below area Est $93k · 6% under $765/mo HOA · 44% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quality Home, Top Of The Line Appliances. 2 Large Patios, Includes Refrigerator, Washer And Dryer, 4 Ceiling Fans, 2 Closets In Master (One Is Walk In And Other Is Mirrored Doors). Drywall Construction, Dual Pane Windows, Glass Front Buffet, Laundry Room, Nice Kitchen Cabinents. A Delight.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Split-wing layout
• Indoor utility room

Tags

• SPLIT-WING LAYOUT
• INDOOR UTILITY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED CARPORT DRIVEWAY
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Kern Canyon Estates Homeowners Association; HOA fee $765 monthly; Community clubhouse; On-site gym/exercise facility; Association pool; Association sauna; Association park; Association has pet rules (call for info)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer
• Home design: Leased space; Owner occupant type; Solar system (other/unknown ownership)
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Community pool; Automatic front and rear sprinklers

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/oven; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Central heat
• Interior features: Split wing layout; Bonus room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-123/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $86k (1.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (1.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.4% in East Niles — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kern High (urban): math 21% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #860 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 387 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $88k implies a 134% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,412 (1.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.50%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,297
• List price: $87,900
• Delta: -5.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #146	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+7%)	8mo	$85,000	$68	78
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #237	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+7%)	9mo	$79,000	$63	76
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #93	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+7%)	2mo	$68,000	$54	74
9220 Eastwind Cir	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,196 (+2%)	9mo	$110,000	$92	73
8904 Eastwind Cir	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+7%)	6mo	$285,000	$228	66
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #150	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+15%)	1mo	$93,000	$69	65
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #44	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+15%)	6mo	$63,000	$47	65
8300 Kern Canyon Rd #133	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-11%)	5mo	$45,000	$43	63
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #100	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+15%)	8mo	$105,000	$78	63
8536 Kern Canyon Rd #236	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+15%)	9mo	$58,000	$43	62
8500 Kern Canyon Rd #139	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+15%)	3mo	$74,000	$55	60
9305 Eastwind Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+15%)	6mo	$250,000	$186	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-15,711
• Equity at exit: $13,106

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-17,797
• Equity at exit: $7,600

Cash invested: $24,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93306

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 387
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,724 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$110 /mo · $1,318/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$765
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,737

Max offer price $86,412

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $50	-5% $20	+0% $-10	+5% $-41	+10% $-71
Rent	-10% $-147	-5% $-78	+0% $-10	+5% $58	+10% $126
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $12	base $-10	+0.5pp $-33	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,975
• Closing costs: $2,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3217 Fortier St Unit B Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1072	$1,650	$1.54	3d	1	0.39mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	884	$1,005	$1.14	3d	1	0.98mi
600 Morning Dr Unit 661-363-6434 Bakersfield, CA	3.0	1.0	1054	$1,067	$1.01	45d	1	0.98mi
7000 College Ave Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	849	$1,480	$1.74	20d	1	0.99mi
7000 College Ave Unit 035 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.0	849	$1,525	$1.80	15d	1	1.00mi
7000 College Ave Apt 168 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	957	$1,655	$1.73	20d	1	1.00mi
8817 Butternut Ave Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,200	$1.59	3d	1	1.16mi
9802 Krista Vineyard Way Bakersfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,195	$1.69	3d	1	1.17mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Unit 152 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1040	$1,610	$1.55	3d	1	1.40mi
6900 Valleyview Dr Apt 127 Bakersfield, CA	2.0	1.5	975	$1,535	$1.57	45d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $765 · $9,180/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-23
   listed $94,999 Active 426-char remark
2. 2001-10-05
   soldstatus $37,500 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Quality Home, Top Of The Line Appliances. 2 Large Patios, Includes Refrigerator, Washer And Dryer, 4 Ceiling Fans, 2 Closets In Master (One Is Walk In And Other Is Mirrored Doors). Drywall Construction, Dual Pane Windows, Glass Front Buffet, Laundry Room, Nice Kitchen Cabinents. A Delight.

3. 2001-08-17
   price $39,950 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Quality Home, Top Of The Line Appliances. 2 Large Patios, Includes Refrigerator, Washer And Dryer, 4 Ceiling Fans, 2 Closets In Master (One Is Walk In And Other Is Mirrored Doors). Drywall Construction, Dual Pane Windows, Glass Front Buffet, Laundry Room, Nice Kitchen Cabinents. A Delight.

4. 2001-08-17
   listed $39,950 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Quality Home, Top Of The Line Appliances. 2 Large Patios, Includes Refrigerator, Washer And Dryer, 4 Ceiling Fans, 2 Closets In Master (One Is Walk In And Other Is Mirrored Doors). Drywall Construction, Dual Pane Windows, Glass Front Buffet, Laundry Room, Nice Kitchen Cabinents. A Delight.

5. 2001-08-17
   historical 290-char remark

   Show marketing remark (290 chars)

   Quality Home, Top Of The Line Appliances. 2 Large Patios, Includes Refrigerator, Washer And Dryer, 4 Ceiling Fans, 2 Closets In Master (One Is Walk In And Other Is Mirrored Doors). Drywall Construction, Dual Pane Windows, Glass Front Buffet, Laundry Room, Nice Kitchen Cabinents. A Delight.

6. 1999-10-01
   soldstatus $44,950

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   Immaculate Dbl Wide `96 Sunpointe By Fleetwood New `98 Gas Kitchaid Stove-new 98 Ge Dishwasher-auto Drip Watering Sys. In Planter Awnings On 3 Sides Patio Lighting & Fld Lighting On Both Sides-mist System On Back Patio. 10x12 Storage W/ Walls & Roof I

7. 1999-09-17
   historical

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   Immaculate Dbl Wide `96 Sunpointe By Fleetwood New `98 Gas Kitchaid Stove-new 98 Ge Dishwasher-auto Drip Watering Sys. In Planter Awnings On 3 Sides Patio Lighting & Fld Lighting On Both Sides-mist System On Back Patio. 10x12 Storage W/ Walls & Roof I

8. 1999-04-14
   listed $44,950

   Show marketing remark (264 chars)

   Immaculate Dbl Wide `96 Sunpointe By Fleetwood New `98 Gas Kitchaid Stove-new 98 Ge Dishwasher-auto Drip Watering Sys. In Planter Awnings On 3 Sides Patio Lighting & Fld Lighting On Both Sides-mist System On Back Patio. 10x12 Storage W/ Walls & Roof I

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,924
• − Property taxes: −$1,318
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,655
• − Management: −$1,655
• − HOA: −$9,180
• − Depreciation: −$2,557
• Taxable loss: −$1,038
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$249
• After-tax cash flow: $126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kern High
• NCES district ID: 0619540
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,686
• Composite: 33.68/100
• National rank: #10443
• State rank: #860 of 1400 in CA

Livability — East Niles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Niles, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 74,116
• Household income: $69,805
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2871.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 23% Two or more races 20% Black 3% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 63%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 46% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -323.02%
• Current HPI: 358.5434
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.24%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+95.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — GEMLS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $87,900 GEMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $94,999 GEMLS
• 2001-10-05 Sold (MLS) $37,500 GEMLS
• 2001-08-17 Price Changed $39,950 GEMLS
• 2001-08-17 Delisted — GEMLS
• 2001-08-17 Listed $39,950 GEMLS
• 1999-10-01 Sold (MLS) $44,950 GEMLS
• 1999-09-17 Delisted — GEMLS
• 1999-04-14 Listed $44,950 GEMLS

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $165 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.