16806 Chapel Knox Dr

Atascocita, TX 77346

$398,000D-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,850 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,674/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,087
• Tax + insurance: −$1,238
• HOA: −$97
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$561
• Net cashflow: $-1,310/mo
• Annual: $-15,718/yr
• Cap rate: 2.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.10%
• DSCR: 0.37
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $111,440

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $398k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (35.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (32.8% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($362k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $257k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Creek El (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 1,125 students, 74% FRL); West Lake Middle (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 1,586 students, 33% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 32% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1059 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.8% in Atascocita — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.