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16806 Chapel Knox Dr
D- Composite 37.29
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +14.4/15.0
  • Appreciation +4.5/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Schools +3.7/10.0
  • Livability +3.5/5.0
  • Cash flow +2.9/30.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +1.7/10.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0

$398,000

16806 Chapel Knox Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346
4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market
Built 2023 Good condition 5,362 sqft lot Garage $140/sqft · 15% below area Est $471k · 15% under $97/mo HOA · 4% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Stunning home located in the sought-after master-planned community of The Groves. This two story offers 5 bedrooms (including 2 on the 1st floor), 3.5 baths, and a large gameroom, providing an ideal layout for both daily living and entertaining. The open-concept design showcases a bright and airy kitchen with white cabinetry, under-cabinet lighting, stainless steel appliances, and a generous island accented by designer pendant lights. The family room offers plenty of natural light and it seamlessly connects to the dining area and kitchen. The primary suite features a spa-inspired bath with a deluxe oversized shower.

Key facts

  • Open-concept design
  • Generous island
  • Spa-inspired bath

Tags

OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGNBRIGHT AND AIRY KITCHENSTAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCESGENEROUS ISLANDSPA-INSPIRED BATHDELUXE OVERSIZED SHOWER

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $398k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (35.4% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (32.8% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $257k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.8% in Atascocita — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Ridge Creek El (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 1,125 students, 74% FRL); West Lake Middle (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #613 of 1,662 statewide, top 38%, 1,586 students, 33% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 32% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents flat; 1059 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($362k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price.
Recommended offer $257,285 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.67%
Cap rate
2.34%
Cash-on-cash
-14.10%
DSCR
0.37
GRM
12.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$470,504
List price
$398,000
Delta
-15.41%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
16334 Silver Emperor St 0.37mi 4/3.0 2,767 (-3%) 2mo $429,000 $155 75
11942 Walden Pines Rd 0.17mi 4/3.0 3,179 (+12%) 2mo $569,900 $179 69
12103 Richardson Fort Way 0.36mi 4/3.0 2,495 (-12%) 3mo $449,000 $180 58
12338 Castano Creek Dr 0.68mi 4/3.0 2,722 (-4%) 1mo $363,998 $134 58
15819 Formaston Forest Dr 0.56mi 4/3.0 2,611 (-8%) 1mo $429,990 $165 57
12322 Grand Arches Ln 0.53mi 4/3.0 2,576 (-10%) 1mo $359,999 $140 56
16811 Lantana Valley Pl Unit P 0.57mi 4/4.0 2,607 (-8%) 2mo $424,999 $163 56
16823 Hammon Woods Dr 0.74mi 4/3.0 2,746 (-4%) 2mo $415,000 $151 56
17022 Tallgrass Prairie Ln 0.54mi 3/3.0 (-1) 2,667 (-6%) 3mo $395,000 $148 55
12531 Tullich Run Dr 0.52mi 4/3.5 3,267 (+15%) 0mo $565,000 $173 51
17103 Mount Loretto Ct 0.74mi 4/3.0 2,697 (-5%) 4mo $439,900 $163 51
12011 Lake Mead Ln 0.70mi 4/3.5 3,156 (+11%) 3mo $440,000 $139 47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-26.2%
Equity multiple
-0.07×
Total profit
$-119,723
Equity at exit
$96,949
10-year hold
IRR
-23.4%
Equity multiple
-0.85×
Total profit
$-206,017
Equity at exit
$102,552

Cash invested: $111,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
66 active · 42 under contract
Months of supply
6.8 mo (15%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$399,350 ($157/sqft)
Median days on market
56 d
This list price
47% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+5.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77346

Home prices YoY
-0.4%
Rents YoY
0.1%
Active inventory
1059
Price-to-rent
12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,674 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$2,087
Tax from tax record
$1,072 /mo · $12,864/yr
Insurance
$166
HOA
$97
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$561
Net cashflow
$-1,310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,332
Max offer price $257,285
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-1,085 -5% $-1,197 +0% $-1,310 +5% $-1,423 +10% $-1,535
Rent -10% $-1,521 -5% $-1,415 +0% $-1,310 +5% $-1,204 +10% $-1,099
Rate -1.0pp $-1,109 -0.5pp $-1,209 base $-1,310 +0.5pp $-1,413 +1.0pp $-1,518

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$99,500
Closing costs
$11,940
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 29 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
16307 Pintado Forest Rd Humble, TX 3.0 2.0 2160 $2,100 $0.97 20d 1 0.40mi
12543 Highgrove Springs Dr Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 2512 $2,466 $0.98 54d 1 0.62mi
12218 Sunlight Peak Ln Humble, TX 3.0 2.0 2218 $2,251 $1.01 88d 1 0.64mi
15646 Scolty Reach Ln Unit Labs Atascocita, TX 4.0 3.5 3238 $3,700 $1.14 76d 1 0.78mi
4110 Forest Rain Ln Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2845 $2,370 $0.83 120d 1 0.89mi
12323 Crescent Mountain Ln Humble, TX 3.0 2.5 2358 $2,136 $0.91 88d 1 0.91mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 2476 $3,100 $1.25 139d 1 1.09mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2620 $3,150 $1.20 98d 1 1.11mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2620 $3,350 $1.28 139d 1 1.11mi
15319 Kinord Run Dr Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2634 $2,581 $0.98 68d 1 1.12mi
12923 Madison Boulder Ln Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2459 $2,814 $1.14 11d 1 1.17mi
4719 Blue Spruce Hill St Humble, TX 3.0 2.0 3080 $2,450 $0.80 24d 1 1.21mi
11347 Needlerock Ct Unit 1310533P Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 3239 $9,388 $2.90 139d 1 1.21mi
12223 Elm Orchard Trl Humble, TX 5.0 3.0 2572 $2,409 $0.94 4d 1 1.22mi
3231 Barton Sky Ln Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 1949 $2,100 $1.08 45d 1 1.23mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX 4.0 2.0 2450 $5,000 $2.04 54d 1 1.27mi
5046 Dappled Grove Trl Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2615 $2,296 $0.88 88d 1 1.28mi
12419 Adams Ridge Ln Humble, TX 4.0 2.0 2437 $2,600 $1.07 67d 1 1.29mi
3238 Elisa Springs Ln Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2079 $2,250 $1.08 68d 1 1.32mi
15342 Majestic Knight Dr Houston, TX 4.0 3.0 2204 $2,600 $1.18 11d 1 1.33mi
16811 Bornish Hill Ct Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 2465 $2,795 $1.13 31d 1 1.34mi
17602 Favor Bend Dr Humble, TX 3.0 2.0 2440 $1,995 $0.82 11d 1 1.35mi
12011 Summer Range Dr Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2718 $2,660 $0.98 18d 1 1.37mi
15126 Sequoia Meadow Ct Humble, TX 4.0 3.5 2671 $2,595 $0.97 78d 1 1.38mi
18030 June Forest Dr Humble, TX 4.0 2.5 2341 $2,041 $0.87 74d 1 1.38mi
11927 Fletching Stone Ln Humble, TX 4.0 3.5 2817 $3,200 $1.14 81d 1 1.38mi
12419 Tyler Springs Ln Humble, TX 4.0 3.0 2883 $2,995 $1.04 69d 1 1.40mi
2919 Chaplin Place Dr Humble, TX 3.0 2.5 2148 $1,826 $0.85 4d 1 1.45mi
11307 Huntcrest Ln Humble, TX 4.0 3.5 2305 $2,520 $1.09 18d 1 1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Pool: association poolDisclosures: Municipal Utility District disclosure and seller disclosure
HOA & community
Community association (CCMC)Annual association feeAssociation amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, playground, park, pool, sport courts, tennis courts, and trailsAssociation fee covers clubhouse and recreation facilitiesCommunity pool

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage with garage door opener2 garage spaces
Security
Smoke detectors
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Residential propertyBuilt in 2023Slab foundationComposition roofSubdivision lot
Construction
Brick and cement siding construction
Exterior features
Covered patioFence (back yard)Sprinkler/irrigation systemPatioPrivate yardDeck

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherGarbage disposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms
8 total rooms (including bedrooms and living spaces)
Flooring
CarpetPlank flooringTileVinyl
Bathrooms
3 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
Interior features
Breakfast barDouble vanitiesGranite countersHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen and family room comboPantryTub with showerKitchen and dining combo

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-23
    days on market $398,000 Active 107 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $398,000 Active 106 DOM
  3. 2026-09-21
    days on market $398,000 Active 105 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $398,000 Active 104 DOM
  5. 2026-09-19
    days on market $398,000 Active 103 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    days on market $398,000 Active 102 DOM
  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $398,000 Active 101 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $398,000 Active 100 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $398,000 Active 99 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $398,000 Active 98 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $398,000 Active 97 DOM
  12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $398,000 Active 96 DOM
  13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $398,000 Active 95 DOM
  14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $398,000 Active 89 DOM
  15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $398,000 Active 88 DOM
  16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $398,000 Active 86 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $398,000 Active 84 DOM
  18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $398,000 Active 83 DOM
  19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $398,000 Active 82 DOM
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $398,000 Active 81 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $398,000 Active 80 DOM
  22. 2026-08-25
    pricedays on market $398,000 Active 78 DOM
  23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $405,000 Active 77 DOM
  24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $405,000 Active 76 DOM
  25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $405,000 Active 75 DOM
  26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $405,000 Active 74 DOM
  27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $405,000 Active 73 DOM
  28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $405,000 Active 72 DOM
  29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $405,000 Active 71 DOM
  30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $405,000 Active 70 DOM
  31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $405,000 Active 69 DOM
  32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $405,000 Active 68 DOM
  33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $405,000 Active 67 DOM
  34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $405,000 Active 66 DOM
  35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $405,000 Active 65 DOM
  36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $405,000 Active 64 DOM
  37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $405,000 Active 63 DOM
  38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $405,000 Active 62 DOM
  39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $405,000 Active 61 DOM
  40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $405,000 Active 59 DOM
  41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $405,000 Active 58 DOM
  42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $405,000 Active 57 DOM
  43. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $405,000 Active 56 DOM
  44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $415,000 Active 53 DOM
  45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $415,000 Active 51 DOM
  46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $415,000 Active 50 DOM
  47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $415,000 Active 48 DOM
  48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $415,000 Active 46 DOM
  49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $415,000 Active 45 DOM
  50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $415,000 Active 44 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$12,864 · $1,072/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$12,864 · $1,072/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$32,083
− Mortgage interest
−$22,294
− Property taxes
−$12,864
− Insurance
−$1,990
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,567
− Management
−$2,567
− HOA
−$1,164
− Depreciation
−$11,578
Taxable loss
−$22,941
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$5,506
After-tax cash flow
$-10,213/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,250–$42,750 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in The Groves community is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout with an open-concept kitchen and living areas, and a clean exterior with a landscaped front yard. Potential value-adding updates include painting the exterior trim and adding smart home devices.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
  • Resale Clean gutters — Keeps the home looking well-maintained and can prevent water damage.
  • Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes the interior and can improve energy efficiency.
  • Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and can increase property value.
  • Both Add outdoor lighting — Improves safety and curb appeal, especially at night.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ridge Creek El F TX #2,525/4,322 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle West Lake Middle F TX #613/1,662 Nat'l #5,727/14,009 High Summer Creek H S F TX #798/1,632 Nat'l #8,052/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Humble ISD
NCES district ID
4823910
Math proficiency
38% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
44% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income
$83,946
Composite
38.55/100
National rank
#4171
State rank
#262 of 826 in TX
B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Atascocita

Score
70/100
State rank
#346
US rank
#7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Atascocita, TX
County
Harris County · 5,571,493 people
City population
79,538
Metro
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP)
79,538
Household income
$122,241
Rent vs Own
18.3% rent · 81.7% own
Severe rent burden
14% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
5,571,493 people
By 2030
6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040
7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050
8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075
10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100
12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity
White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born
10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home
78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin
Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing
+3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles
2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+0.0% since first listed
6 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-08 Listed $415,000 HARMLS
  • 2026-02-03 Pending HARMLS
  • 2026-02-03 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2026-01-07 Listing Removed HARMLS
  • 2026-01-07 Listed $410,000 HARMLS
  • 2025-11-07 Listed $415,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+49.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,864 · +49.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…